Daily Market Price Updates and Commentary 2nd March 2026

Raw Sugar Update 

The changes to the geopolitical situation over the weekend saw May’26 begin its tenure as spot with a gap opening to 14.22, though the situation soon calmed and trading settled in to sit either side of 14.10. The reaction was driven by the already higher crude prices and uncertainty as to how that will influence ethanol outputs, and through the morning the uncertainty allowed for process to drive higher again, with May’26 topping at 14.29 as an assortment of grower scale up pricing orders were filled in. These were the highest levels since late January, but despite the concerns there was no sign of any large spec covering, with the funds apparently ambivalent to the news and counting to maintain a position which despite some small reduction last week still sat at -257,863 lots. During the later morning, the market eased away from the highs to partially fill the opening chart gap, resting just ahead of 14.00 as the afternoon got underway and allowed traders to view how those in the Americas would respond. The reality was that they really didn’t, largely standing aside as May’26 continued ahead of 14.00 for a period until eventually making a mid-afternoon slip to 13.96 which fulfilled all chart requirements. Prices then maintained either side of 14.00 though there was no comeback of any magnitude possible with May’25 subsequently moving back down through 14.00 during the final hour to record more session lows. Selling continued into the close with May’26 moving to close just a couple of points higher at 13.91 to remain within the recent range, though of course the developing situation in the Middle East may have more influence over the macro direction in the days ahead.     

White Sugar Update 

With crude prices higher against the developing situation in the Middle East and No.11 having already made a firmer start the market was called higher and responded with May’26 making early gains to $416.90 across the first thirty minutes. The rate of gain then eased slightly though still the market moved higher, working on to $421.00 on strong volumes with concerns of raw sugar supply to middle east refineries raising the prospect of a reduced white sugar availability. May/May’26 was trading up to $107.00 over the course of the morning as the figurehead white premium set the tone for gains down the board, while nearby spreads were also firmer and May/Aug’26 moved back to $4.60. The market topped at $421.50 but then set back into the middle of the range before noon, though relative to No.11 the price was maintaining well with arbitrage concerns / support the key. Afternoon trading was far calmer that that which had passed and May’26 comfortably maintained a solid position in the teens, never really appearing likely to give back its gains. This pattern endured through the afternoon with movements in the wider commodity macro largely disregarded as products moved back from their highs and gains softened. The price slipped to its lowest levels since early morning on the close though May’26 still maintained a healthy gain at $413.60. This placed May/May’26 at $107.00 going out, and while the Middle East situation has support whites values so far, the next moves will be dictated by how the situation evolves and macro reactions.