Insight Focus

• We project Guatemala will produce 2.76 million tonnes of sugar this season.
• November rains delayed harvest, but production seems to be on track.
• Mexico’s poor crop and yields means it will likely continue importing from Guatemala.

We expect Guatemala to produce approximately 2.76m tonnes of sugar for the 2023/24 season, a 3.8% increase on last year’s harvest. Guatemala’s sugar production has been relatively consistent over the past ten years. Sugar production has remained the same due to the lack of availability of land. Sugar competes with banana and palm oil in Guatemala’s southern region.

Guatemala is the largest sugar producer in Central America and the Caribbean.

Guatemala primarily used to produce raw sugar, but with a rising white premium in the last few years, many sugar mills started refining their sugar and selling it as a bagged value-added product. The production of refined sugar has increased the past four seasons. Refined sugar production has grown from 46% in 2018 to a projected 52% for the 2023 season.

Unusual November Rain

Guatemala experiences only two seasons: a dry and a rainy season. The rainy season runs from May to October, while the dry season goes from November to April. The sugar harvest starts in Guatemala in November and usually ends in April. This past November, Guatemala’s southern sugar-producing region experienced more rain than usual. This unexpected November rain delayed the harvest’s start for a few mills, but after having conversations with them, it seems like production is back on track.

Guatemala Crop Importance

Unlike most countries, Guatemala exports most of the sugar it produces. Guatemala exports have remained between 1.75m tonnes and 1.89m tonnes in the last six harvests. The only harvest to go below this threshold happened in 2020/21. The 2020/21 harvest was remarkably low due to high amounts of rain that season. 

The United States just recently announced a TRQ re-allocation of 225k due to Mexico’s poor sugar crop this year. Guatemala received the third largest re-allocation on the list.

Then, Mexico is expected to have a second poor crop this harvest. 

This means that Mexico will continue importing sugar during the 2023/24 harvest. Most of this imported sugar has come from Central America, with Guatemala leading the way. Most of the sugar that Mexico has imported from Central America has come from Guatemala.