Insight Focus
Global GLP-1 drug uptake has been limited by high cost and low availability. Patents expire for semaglutide (Ozempic) in several countries in 2026. This could lead to increased access for 3 billion people.
GLP-1 Drugs Booming, But Access Has Been Limited
For decades, global sugar consumption has only risen. Its growth has been propelled by the vast increase in the world’s population and increasing wealth/urbanization, which favours packaged food consumption.
But GLP-1 receptor agonist drugs like Ozempic and Mounjaro are a major breakthrough in obesity (and possibly addiction) treatment and have rapidly become mainstream. They reduce sensations of hunger, and also seem to reduce impulsive human behaviour like binge-eating calorie dense foods. This has the potential to undermine sugar consumption growth in the future.
Up to now, GLP-1 drugs have been hard to access and expensive. In the US, a month’s supply of Ozempic or Mounjaro can cost as much as USD 1,000 without insurance. Many health insurers have been reluctant to cover them for weight loss purposes. In the UK, a month’s dose can cost as much as GBP 250 (USD 335) and free access on the National Health Service is limited to those who are obese with weight-related health complications.
This high cost, along with limited manufacturing supply, means usage has remained mostly concentrated in wealthier countries (notably the US and parts of Europe) and among patients who can afford to pay.
Despite these constraints, demand in available markets has been frenzied, turning GLP-1 drugs into blockbuster products.
The two pharmaceutical leaders in this space – Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly – have seen astonishing growth in sales of their GLP-1 drugs for diabetes and obesity and have struggled to keep up with demand even at premium prices.
2026: A Turning Point as Patents Expire and Generics Arrive
The next turning point for GLP-1 drugs is already on the horizon.
Patent protections for semaglutide (Ozempic/Wegovy) expire in 2026 in Canada, India, Brazil and China, opening the door for lower-cost biosimilar generic versions. We have seen reports that these generic versions may cost as little as USD 10 per dose to make. Analysts expect steep price reductions in countries where the patent expires — potentially slashing costs by 60–70% once generics enter the market.
In India, Dr Reddy’s Laboratories Ltd has already developed a semaglutide biosimilar which they are currently registering globally. They expect to roll out in Canada, Brazil and India. Indian company Biocon has already agreed a licensing and supply deal in Brazil with Biomm SA. Brazilian regulator ANVISA has received at least 4 requests to licence generic semaglutide. In China we are aware of at least 11 clinical trials for generic semaglutide as part of the regulatory process.
Generic versions of Ozempic cannot be exported to countries where patent protection still applies and so may not radically undermine US and European list prices. But the arrival of cheaper generics could be big news for countries where semaglutide usage is not yet mainstream.
Crucially, the development of generics will also increase the quantity of GLP-1 drugs made each year. This should increase access to GLP-1 drugs beyond established high-income markets. IQVIA estimates that at least one in three people living with obesity worldwide resides in a country where semaglutide is available off-patent in 2026.
In short, the GLP-1 boom could be about to go global.
Implications for Consumption Trends
Sugar consumption is notoriously difficult to model and analyse. One complication is the presence of “super-users” of many fast-moving consumer goods. Research shows that in the US, the top 20% of users accounted for at least 70% of soda sales. The top 20% of ice cream users accounted for around 65% of purchases. It’s similar for cookies and chocolate too.
We have assumed that super-users of soft drinks, ice creams, cookies, chocolate and candy might in many cases be compulsively eating them, and are more likely to be overweight. We’d therefore expect there to be overlap between people who are super-users of FMCG foods and people who are using GLP-1 receptor agonist drugs to manage weight loss.
We have therefore started to taper our sugar consumption estimates for countries where GLP-1 usage is meaningful – currently the US and several other advanced economies. If GLP-1 generic drugs become popular in India, China, Brazil and Canada, we will taper our consumption forecasts for these countries too.
What Exactly Are GLP-1 Drugs, and Why the Buzz?
GLP-1 receptor agonist drugs were originally developed to treat type-2 diabetes.
When a recently-eaten meal reaches cells in the intestine, they release a glucagon-like peptide 1, or GLP-1. This is one of many hormones that tells the body it should respond to food. Many organs have GLP-1 receptors and when GLP-1 is released they respond by starting digestion. For example, GLP-1 triggers the pancreas to release more insulin.
GLP-1 receptor agonists can perform a similar role, stimulating these receptors to induce desired responses.
GLP-1 receptor agonists are not new drugs. The original GLP-1 receptor agonist was exenatide, which was first synthesised in 1996. However, strange as it may seem knowing what we know now, commercialisation was slow. The US Food and Drug Administration only approved exenatide to treat type-2 diabetes in 2005.
It’s only in the past few years that this class of drugs has really become famous. Ozempic was approved for type 2-diabetes in 2017, but it became increasingly common for doctors to prescribe it to obese patients “off-label” as a treatment to control weight.
The GLP-1 in Ozempic is called semaglutide, and given its off-label popularity, drug manufacturers have now re-dosed semaglutide specifically for weight loss. These re-dosed drugs are sold under the brand name Wegovy. Further competition comes from tirzepatide, approved by the FDA in 2022 and now sold under the Mounjaro/Zepbound brand name.
