Analyst Insights

Daily Market Price Update and Commentary 10th July 2020

• As of this fortnight, CS Brazil has already crushed 40% of its cane and produced 13.3mmt of sugar in 20/21.
• At this point, a production change (i.e. sugar mix decrease) is unlikely as sugar prices still best ethanol’s.
• Hydrous ethanol sales continue to gradually recover.

Daily Market Price Update and Commentary 9th July 2020

• Nominations have slowed down a bit this week in CS;
• Around 390kmt of raws were added to Q3 line up – registered nominations for July and August;
• Waiting time to berth at Santos remains high.

• Thailand is in for another dry year following its disastrous 2019 cane crop.
• This means cane yields won’t improve by much this year.
• Rainfall is below average, and the cane is suffering as a result.

• The No.11 futures have pushed back to 12c/lb once again, meaning the raw sugar export margins remain negative.
• The No.5 futures have continued their downtrend this week, bringing Indian white sugar exports close to negative export parity.
• The USD/INR FX has strengthened this week, reducing the attractiveness of exports. 

Daily Market Price Update and Commentary 8th July 2020

• The US’ harvest is over half-way done, and it’s picking up in Europe. 
• We continue to keep an eye on Argentina and Australia.
• We wait with anticipation for the USDA’s July WASDE rReport coming on Friday.

• The situation in each country is evolving every day as the authorities extend or relax restrictions.
• In general, the situation has become more stable and predictable, and worldwide, the effects of COVID-19 are decreasing each week.
• However, equipment availability, storage space, and blanked vessel sailings continue to have an impact on the overall situation.

Daily Market Price Update and Commentary 7th July 2020

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• It was another quiet week in raw sugar for specs, whose gross long and short positions both had a small drop to take their involvement in the market to a decade low.
• This lack of spec involvement is ominous; any directional trigger for their re-entry into raws could lead to a significant price change in the short-term.
• The net spec position in white sugar continued to fall, reflecting the price deflation over the past few weeks.