Insight Focus
PET and PTA Futures continued to weaken following softening crude oil and upstream costs. Asian PET resin export prices followed suit with producer margins also feeling pressure. Futures forward curves now showing slight premium; crude oil still backwardated to Q1 2026.
PTA Futures and Forward Curve
PTA Futures continued to soften following weakening upstream costs on the back off falling crude values.
Crude oil prices have slumped over the last fortnight, moving from as high as USD 72/bbl in July to below USD 66/bbl, mid-August, prompted by increased concerns of a US recession and additional rate cuts.
PX-N CFR spread strengthened marginally, up by around USD 3/tonne; PTA-PX CFR spread decreased USD 4/tonne on last week. to average USD 78/tonne.
Whilst some major PTA plants restarted, others swung into maintenance. Overall PTA operating increased slightly, however, was largely offset an increase in downstream polyester production keeping the SD balance relatively stable.
PTA fundamentals are expected to remain within a relatively stable range for August, and only potentially see margin improvement once downstream polyester production beings to move out of off-season later in Sept.
The PTA forward curve remains relatively unchanged; the Jan’26 contract has a RMB 40/tonne premium to the current month’s contract, and Mar’26 with a RMB 54/tonne premium.
MEG Futures and Forward Curve
Whilst MEG Futures continued to feel downward pressure, this was to a much lesser extent than PTA last week, with main contract months decreasing by less than 0.5%.
Whilst East China main port inventories leapt by around 16.5% to just 516k tonnes, due to arrival of previously delayed cargoes, unplanned domestic MEG shutdowns prompted restocking.
MEG supply-demand fundamentals are expected to remain largely stable and balanced through August–September. Any supply recovery will then likely be offset by returning buying season.
The MEG Futures forward curve kept relatively flat with the Jan’26 holding just a RMB 17/tonne premium over the current month, and the Mar’26 holding a RMB 23/tonne premium.
PET Resin Export – Raw Material Spread and Forward Curve
Chinese PET resin export prices also followed softening raw material costs, with an average of USD 775/tonne FOB China by Friday, down a further USD 10/tonne on the week.
The average weekly PET resin physical differential against raw material future costs increased USD 3/tonne to positive USD 11/tonne last week. By Friday, the daily differential was at positive USD 12/tonne.
The raw material cost forward curve is now showing a small forward premium, with Jan’26 at a USD 6/tonne premium with current month, and May’26 holding just a USD 12/tonne premium.
PET Resin Futures and Forward Curve
PET Resin Futures also softened, with main month contracts down by an average of 1%; Sept’25 contract months fell by 1.15% versus the previous week.
The current main month fell to RMB 5896/tonne (USD 820/tonne), down by just USD 1/tonne from last week (including the foreign exchange adjustment).
The average weekly premium of the Sept’25 PET Futures over Sept’25 Raw Material Futures increased to USD 20/tonne, up by USD 3/tonne. By Friday, the daily premium stood at USD 19/tonne.
The PET Resin Futures forward curve remains in slight contango. Jan’26 was at a RMB 34/tonne (USD 5/tonne) premium over the current month; Mar’26 had RMB 64/tonne (USD 9/tonne) premium.
Concluding Thoughts
Chinese PET resin export prices continued to drift lower through the last week. Although some producers had reported selling out August production, buyers caution on Sept orders is leading producers now to chase sales as the market slows.
With the offseason edging closer, expectations are for the physical differential to raw material costs to face significant pressure, despite recent production cuts.
Although crude oil prices will remain volatile, the Brent crude oil forward curve remains in modest backwardation through into Q1 2026, despite the recent plunge in price.
PET resin prices are expected to move lower over the next two months, coupled with freight prices continuing to ease. However, concerns around economic growth and consumer demand in major markets may temper buyer’s enthusiasm to restock.
For PET hedging enquiries, please contact the risk management desk at MKirby@czarnikow.com.
For research and analysis questions, please get in touch with GLamb@czarnikow.com.
