Insight Focus
2025/26 could bring the second highest global sugar production on record. There are signs that the major sugar producing countries will cut sugar output next season. Consumption growth remains poor.
2025/26 at a Glance…
Global Sugar Production
Our estimate for global sugar production is up by 1.3 million tonnes since our previous update. We now think that global sugar production will hit 186.7 million tonnes in 2025/26.
The increase in production is mainly driven by improved output in China, Indonesia and the EU. We now expect China’s sugar production to reach 12 million tonnes, up from 11.7 million tonnes, as favourable weather in Guangxi and Yunnan has improved yields.
However, mills are currently selling cane at a loss. While the government-set cane price continues to support farmer returns, weaker mill profitability could reduce future support for farmers and may lower next year’s crop back to around 11.7 million tonnes.
Similar pressures are emerging in Thailand, where we expect production to ease next year as farmers, particularly in the Northeast, shift away from cane as cassava returns become more competitive. Tighter margins are also limiting farmers’ ability to apply crop inputs on time, which could weigh negatively on yields.
The ethanol parity is becoming increasingly important in Brazil as mills are likely to have greater flexibility next season to switch between ethanol and sugar production. Brazil is currently in its off-crop period, but while rains have been favourable and we have increased our 2026/27 cane crush forecast from 610 million tonnes to 621 million tonnes, the additional cane is not expected to fully offset a likely decline in the sugar mix. As a result, our sugar production forecast is now 40 million tonnes, down 700,000 tonnes from our previous estimate of 40.7 million tonnes.
Global Sugar Consumption
Our estimate for global sugar consumption is up minimally by 0.2 million tonnes and now stands at 178.5 million tonnes.
Our initial estimates for consumption in 2026/27 suggest growth of 2 million tonnes from 2025/26. Sugar prices have halved from their 2023 peak, and we think this could support an uplift in consumption as stocks around the world rebuild. Part of the recent weakness in growth across many countries has been driven by high food price inflation, which has changed purchasing behaviour. We expect some of that effect to ease as sugar prices, and broader food prices, fall.
However, other headwinds remain, including greater awareness of sugar intake, tighter regulation of sugary foods and drinks, and the increasing adoption of GLP-1 weight loss drugs which will undermine sugar consumption globally.
Production Surplus in 2025/26
We now project a global production surplus of 8.3 million tonnes, which would be the second-largest sugar production surplus since 2017/18.
Our projections then show a smaller surplus of 3.4 million tonnes for 26/27.
Production Update: India
The sugar season has started in India and production so far has been strong. We currently expect that the country will produce 32.8 million tonnes in the 2025/26 season.
Cane flowering may be weighing on ratoon yields in Maharashtra. We’ll continue to monitor for further information, but initial feedback suggests the issue is not widespread and is unlikely to materially affect the broader picture, with India still expected to have a comfortable surplus.
Other Sugar Producers at a Glance…
