Insight Focus
After a weak La Niña in 2025, forecasters expect a moderate to strong El Niño in 2026. The phenomenon is expected from the 3rd quarter onwards and with an intensity similar to that seen in 2023. What could be the impacts on CS Brazil in the middle of the sugarcane harvest?
Early Signs of El Niño in 2026
After the occurrence of a weak La Niña in 2025, which began in the spring, discussions began to arise about the possible formation of an El Niño in the 2026/27 cycle.
El Niño is characterised by the abnormal warming of the waters of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, causing relevant changes in rainfall patterns in South America. In Brazil, the phenomenon is usually associated with above-average rainfall and more frequent storms in the South Region, while the North Region tends to record a reduction in precipitation.
The most recent projections from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) already point to a higher probability of the formation of an El Niño of moderate to strong intensity, similar to that observed in 2023. They believe the phenomenon could start in May, with intensification throughout the Aug/Sept/Oct quarter. Historically, the peak occurs between November and January, the summer of the Southern Hemisphere.
Note: Labels refer to rolling trimesters. For example, JFM = January–February–March; FMA = February–March–April, and so on.
Impacts on CS Brazil for the 2026/27 Harvest
The Center-South of Brazil is a transition region and, therefore, the impacts associated with El Niño and La Niña events are not always clearly manifested.
The peak of the sugarcane harvest in the Center-South occurs between June and August, a typically dry period in the country, as it corresponds to the winter in the Southern Hemisphere. In an El Niño scenario, there is a possibility of atypical rain showers between August and September
This scenario could directly affect the efficiency of the harvest, both in field operations (as daily rainfall greater than 10 mm usually paralyzes work) and in export logistics, since any rain in the ports interrupts shipments, since humidity compromises the quality of the sugar.
Historically, in El Niño years, the number of days lost to precipitation tends to reach record levels, as we can see with what happened in 2023/24 and 2015/16.
During the peak of the harvest, each day of stoppage in operations can result in approximately 3 million tonnes of sugarcane that are not processed.
In addition, excessive rainfall reduces the ATR of sugarcane, which can put pressure on the sugar mix, due to the greater difficulty of crystallization. In a year where we already foresee a drop in the mix due to the price level and competition with ethanol, a lower ATR could further harm CS Brasil’s sugar production.
Rains Show Positive Scenario for the 2026/27 Harvest – So Far
In sugarcane cultivation, the most decisive period for crop development occurs in the first quarter of the year (Jan-Mar).
For the 2026/27 harvest, the good rainfall volumes recorded in January and February support our expectations of greater sugarcane availability. Despite having remained below the historical average in January, we see that rainfall in CS is better than in the last 3 years for the beginning of the year. For February, expectations are even better. With a projection of ending the month at 189mm, CS Brazil has already received a total of 111 mm until February 20. The value alone already exceeds the last 3 years.
