CS Brazil Weather Update – Q1 2026

Rainfall in CS Brazil during Q1 2026 has remained above levels observed in recent years, with precipitation also exceeding the historical average. In March, rainfall volumes have continued to outperform those recorded in the last couple years and are running above the 5-year-average. The month is currently projected to end with cumulative precipitation of around 127 mm. 

Looking at daily precipitation in March, higher volumes were concentrated in the first half of the month, with rainfall reaching up to 18 mm/day.  

In the second half of the month, precipitation may decline, although rainfall events continue to be forecast. March typically marks the end of Brazil’s rainy season, and lower volumes are expected from next month onward. With the CS Brazilian cane industry currently in the off-season, rainfall has not significantly disrupted field operations as most mills are not yet operating. In general, around 10 mm of rainfall in a day is enough to halt field operations. 

Precipitation since January has reinforced expectations of greater cane availability for the 2026/27 season. We think Centre-South Brazil will crush more than 620m tonnes of cane. 

The last time the region experienced similarly favourable rainfall conditions during Q1 was in the 2023 crop, when Centre-South Brazil reached a record production of 654.4m tonnes of cane crushing, making 42.5m tonnes of sugar. That season also recorded the highest agricultural yield ever, reaching 94 tonnes/ha during the peak of the harvest and finishing the crop with an average of 87.5 tonnes/ha. 

There has been some market talk about mills potentially advancing the start of the 2026/27 season, which typically begins in April. Given expectations of stronger cane availability, some mills are considering bringing forward their crush to March, although this will largely depend on weather conditions.  

Since 10 mm of rainfall can already disrupt operations, the current forecast does show a clear window that would support an earlier start. However, rainfall expected around March 19–20 remains a point of attention in case forecast volumes increase. 

It’s worth noting that mills starting earlier does not necessarily means more sugar available on the market. That’s because we are expecting mills to prioritize ethanol production, mainly at the start of the crop, as hedging levels are low and sugar is currently trading at a 2.2 c/lb discount to ethanol. We still forecast the sugar mix to be 48% in the 2026/27 crop.  

Weather At Brazilian Ports in Q1 

Analysing Brazil’s two major exporting ports, March recorded significant rainfall, especially at Santos where daily precipitation peaks exceeded 40 mm. At Paranaguá, the highest daily accumulation surpassed 30 mm. 

This period typically poses challenges for port logistics, as even moderate rainfall can temporarily interrupt loading operations. Since November, with the return of the rainy season, waiting times at ports have increased considerably, rising from an average of 2.7 days in January to around 7 days in February and March. 

Although this may appear significant, it remains below the 10-year average for the period. In addition, the impact on exports is limited, as Brazil is currently in the off-crop period and sugar shipments are relatively low, meaning the slower pace of operations has had only a minor effect on overall flows.