Daily Market Price Updates and Commentary 3rd August 2026

The week commenced with an initial calm period, however buying soon followed and resulted in a sharp price increase back towards 14.90 for Oct’26. More than 7,000 lots were purchased on this move with specs likely making up a good deal of the interest, both from day traders moving long and through cover against existing shorts. Fridays COT had shown a larger than anticipated 32,000 lot increase in shorts to stand the position at -119,681 lots, and some holders will have been unnerved by this initial movement. This also showed that growers have been quiet with the recent pressure down the range not being applied by that sector, though noticeably they were more present ahead of 15.00 which left the price to track sideways into the afternoon. A small wobble did not discourage buyers and by the middle of the afternoon the market was pushing again, with more cover being taken as part of a high volume move to 15.03. Further highs at 15.06 followed soon after, though having stalled some profit taking emerged and moved values back into the range. Still the buyers were not being deterred, and the last two hours drew another slow climb back to the 15.00 area, ensuring a psychologically positive close at 15.01 which leaves the market positioned well to investigate the overhead pricing. 

Last Fridays more positive showing seemed to be a catalyst from early continuation today as Oct’26 quickly began to work its way back up the range. Sellers were few which allowed Oct’26 to move ahead to $469.70 during the first hour before stalling as selling started to appear around the $470 chart congestion. There was no sign that traders were wanting to turn seller again and so despite meeting resistance the market simply entered a consolidation pattern from which it was slowly able to extend the gain to $471.60. This proved tricky to sustain with Oct/Oct’26 now touching out to $143.00 and an element of position liquidation followed during early afternoon, correcting the premium back to the $139.00 area but without significantly denting the progress made. The afternoon proved quiet but stable from this point onward with prices consolidating comfortably at the upper end of the range but without ever threatening to break new ground. Oct’26 reached the close within a couple of dollars of the highs and settled at $469.50, completing a stronger performance which brings near term chart resistance back into focus.