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Insight Focus
The US sugar market was quiet with steady to higher prices. Beet sugar for 2025-26 rose up to 3c/lb, supported by strong crops, higher USDA loan rates, and a narrower discount to cane. Supplies remain ample, but mixed demand signals and buyer caution keep the market balanced as 2026 corn sweetener talks begin.
US Sugar Prices Hold Steady to Higher
The cash sugar market was mostly quiet during the week ending September 26. Forward sales advanced at a slow pace, and prices were steady to higher. The sugar beet and cane harvests continued to progress.
Beet sugar prices for 2025-26 were steady to 3c/lb higher. One processor raised prices based on the percentage of prospective production sold for next year, current stocks, and beet harvest prospects. The (formerly) wide discount to refined cane sugar prices provided room for beet prices to move higher.
Spot beet and refined cane sugar prices were mostly nominal ahead of the new marketing year. For those who price annually, values will be effective through December. For those who trade on a marketing year basis, 2025-26 prices will take effect October 1. Higher beet sugar prices for 2025-26 will pull current spot levels higher, in part because of support from higher USDA loan rates for the new crop sugar.
Ample Supplies Offset Mixed Demand
There are mixed influences on sugar prices. Large old-crop stocks, especially of beet sugar (which appear to be declining), tend to limit gains. At the same time, the wide discount of beet to refined cane sugar supports beet sugar prices (and is somewhat bearish for cane sugar). High tariffs on imports from Brazil also are supportive, although traders note that even with the tariffs, importing high-tier sugar still “works” in the 48c to 50c/lb range, landed East Coast ports, partly due to the weakness in raw sugar values.
Even with high tariffs and an import forecast for 2025-26 at the lowest in almost two decades (per the USDA), supply is not an issue. Mexico is taking the brunt of the drop in US imports, while high-tier imports will continue, though at a slower pace than in 2024-25. Domestic beet and cane supplies are ample, with new-crop harvests expected to add to supplies later in October.
Source: USDA
Sugar beet and cane crops are said to be from average-plus to stellar. Sugar beets in the four major states were 12% harvested as of September 21, even with the five-year average, the USDA said in its weekly Crop Progress report. Beet crops mostly were rated 80% or higher good-to-excellent. The sugar cane harvest in Louisiana was underway, with ratings the highest in at least a decade and production expected to increase for the sixth consecutive year.
Demand remains the challenge—or at least the perplexing part of the equation. In its September 12 WASDE report, the USDA left unchanged from August its delivery-for-food forecasts for both this year and next, with both below year-ago levels.
Source: USDA
However, in its Sweetener Market Data (SMD) report, the USDA showed July deliveries for food up 17.8% from a year earlier, with October–July deliveries up 0.4%. Granted, the SMD delivery data likely was skewed by high non-reporter deliveries, but the strong numbers also were corroborated by some processors, who reported robust deliveries in July and August, with September slower but still good.
Strong August sales and spot deliveries may have been partly fuelled by “fire” sales by one or more processors seeking to unload excess supply ahead of new-crop harvest. But that likely did not account for all of it, as some users waited to cover nearby needs amid declining sugar prices.
Uncertainty in demand also may be encouraging some users to delay completing coverage for 2025-26, even if processors’ forward sales are in good shape. Buyers know old-crop sugar will be carried over, and many food manufacturers remain unsure of demand for their products next year, opting to cover needs later or in the spot market as the picture comes into focus.
Negotiations for 2026 corn sweetener contracts were underway.
