Insight Focus
The No.11 raw sugar futures traded above 15c/lb last week. Speculators have added to their long positions for the second week in a row. Cocoa prices have been extremely volatile last week, driven by concerns over heavy rainfall and growing El Niño risks.
New York No.11 Raw Sugar Futures
The No.11 raw sugar futures traded higher last week, starting at 15.2c/lb on Monday and eventually settling below 15c on Friday at 14.9c/lb.
On the commercial side, producers have continued to extend their position, adding 26.4k lots of short positions. End-users have closed out 19.2k lots of long positions.
No.11 Commitment of Traders Report (July 7, 2026)
Speculators have extended their long positions for the second week in a row, adding 10.9k lots of longs and closing out 24.1k lots of shorts.
The current speculative net short position stands at -57,529 lots – this level of the net speculative position was last seen in May 2025.
No.11 & No.5 Open interest
The No.11 forward futures curve has weakened minimally towards the front of the curve, whereas the No.5 forward futures curve has flattened across the board.
White Premium (Arbitrage)
The V/V white premium started the week at USD 143.3/tonne and moved lower throughout the week, settling at USD 136.6/tonne on Friday.
Cocoa Futures
Cocoa prices have been extremely volatile over the past week, rallying nearly 20% to a six-month high above USD 6,300/tonne before reversing sharply and falling back toward USD 5,500/tonne.
The initial surge was driven by concerns that heavy rainfall and emerging El Niño risks could damage crops in key West African producers Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, triggering significant short covering and renewed optimism after Barry Callebaut (the world’s largest cocoa processor and chocolate manufacturer) reported its first increase in sales volumes in over two years.
However, the market has since pulled back as weather concerns eased, and traders took profits following the rapid rally. While the 2025/26 season is still expected to move into surplus, keeping a lid on prices in the near term, cocoa continues to find support from historically tight global inventories, structural challenges across West African production, and uncertainty surrounding the 2026/27 crop.
As a result, volatility is likely to remain elevated, with weather developments in West Africa remaining the key driver for price direction in the months ahead.
For a more detailed view of the sugar futures and market data, please refer to the appendix below.
No.11 (Raw Sugar) Appendix
No.5 (White Sugar) Appendix
White Premium Appendix
