Insight Focus
The No.11 raw sugar futures traded below 14c/lb last week. Speculators have extended their net short position in sugar. Wheat futures have crept back up above EUR 190/tonne by the end of last week as the weather remains a key risk factor to watch out for.
New York No.11 Raw Sugar Futures
The raw sugar futures fell to new lows last week hitting 13.7c/lb.
The March’26 raw sugar futures contract expires next week. Expiries are consequential events for the sugar market and are likely to cause some market volatility in the lead up to the expiry day. It will be interesting to see how the market participants position themselves ahead of this.
Last week, speculators have added to their long positions heavily by 22k lots, but they have increased their short position by an even larger amount at 34.2k lots.
No.11 Commitment of Traders Report (February 10, 2026)
This net short position now stands at -251,443 lots – the largest net short position on record.
With prices hitting a new low end-users have used this to their advantage adding 21.7k lots of longs to their position. Whereas producers have extended their commercial short position by 5.5k lots of shorts.
No.11 & No.5 Open interest
Both the No.11 and No.5 forward futures curves have declined across all contracts. The March’26 refined sugar futures contract also expired on Friday and settled at USD 397.1/tonne.
White Premium (Arbitrage)
The H/H white premium traded below USD 90/tonne in its final trading days but eventually settled at USD 93.3/tonne on Friday.
Euronext Milling Wheat Futures (Matif)
The Euronext milling wheat futures have softened but crept back above EUR 190/tonne by the end of last week, as the market continues to digest the potential outcomes of winter wheat conditions in the northern hemisphere where recent cold weather raised concerns.
On the surface cold snaps can appear positive for prices, however protective snow cover, warming temperatures, and beneficial European rainfall have limited damage so far. Despite generally stable conditions, weather remains a key risk, with the months ahead still capable of triggering upside surprise.
More broadly, the futures have been trading sideways around EUR 190/tonne since September, around pre-2022 levels, following persistent downtrend from the Russia-Ukraine bull run.
For a more detailed view of the sugar futures and market data, please refer to the appendix below.
No.11 (Raw Sugar) Appendix
No.5 (White Sugar) Appendix
