Insight Focus
The No.11 raw sugar futures traded sideways over the last week. Producers have added to their positions heavily over the past week. Cocoa markets are seeing a burst of volatility driven by position unwinds rather than a shift in fundamentals.
New York No.11 Raw Sugar Futures
The No.11 raw sugar futures started the week at 14.7c/lb and hit a high of 15c/lb on Tuesday before it eventually settled at 14.7c/lb on Friday.
Producers have opened 13,400 lots of shorts in the past week, whereas end-users have reduced their position by 415 longs.
No.11 Commitment of Traders Report (May 19, 2026)
Speculators have opened 809 lots of long positions and closed out 411 lots of shorts.
The net-speculative position currently stands at -91,770 lots.
No.11 & No.5 Open interest
The No.11 forward futures curve has declined across the board, and the No.5 forward futures curve has strengthened from Aug’26 to Dec’26 but weakened from here onwards.
White Premium (Arbitrage)
The Q/N white premium stared the week at USD 111.8/tonne and rose higher through the week as it closed at USD 118.3/tonne on Friday.
Cocoa Futures
Cocoa markets have seen a burst of volatility, potentially driven by position unwinds rather than a shift in fundamentals. Prices saw a sharp move higher today, with New York futures climbing to around USD 4,141/tonne and briefly jumping as much as 9.5% intraday, the biggest one-day gain since May 11. London prices followed a similar path, rising nearly 9%.
The rally appears to be largely technical. According to analysts, speculative funds had built up sizeable, short positions in cocoa, and growing concerns around a potential El Niño weather pattern which could impact West African production might have triggered a wave of short covering.
On the supply side, recent data remains relatively stable. Ivory Coast port arrivals for the week of May 18–24 reached 33,525 tons, bringing cumulative arrivals for the season to around 1.64 million tons, slightly ahead of the 1.6 million tons recorded at the same point last year. Despite the recent volatility, it’s worth keeping the bigger picture in mind. Cocoa prices are still roughly 70% below the extreme highs seen in late 2024 (above USD 12,000/tonne), and most analysts do not expect a return to those levels anytime soon.
For a more detailed view of the sugar futures and market data, please refer to the appendix below.
No.11 (Raw Sugar) Appendix
No.11 Speculative Positioning
No.11 Spreads
No.5 (White Sugar) Appendix
No.5 Open Interest
No.5 Spreads
White Premium Appendix
