Insight Focus
We forecast that global sugar production could hit 184.4 million tonnes in 2025/26. This would be the second highest production on record. We have reduced our production estimate for India due to early mill closures.
2025/26 at a Glance…
All figures in m tonnes tel quel
Global Sugar Production
Our estimate for global sugar production is down by 2.3 million tonnes since our last report. We now think that global sugar production will hit 184.4 million tonnes in 2025/26.
The decrease in production is mainly led by India, where we have reduced our estimates down from 32.8 million tonnes to 30.2 million tonnes. This is due to the fast pace of mill closures in Maharashtra and Karnataka. Therefore, our current projections are based on potential output from mills still in operation.
In other crop news, the risk of a strong El Niño event has increased in Brazil, with some comparisons being made to the 2023 El Niño episode. Any impact would likely begin to show from May, and intensify through Aug/Sep/Oct, and typically peak between Nov-Jan.
If a stronger El Niño materialises, the main risk for CS Brazil would be heavier rainfall during the peak season, leading to more stoppage days and lower ATR. Lower ATR could also make sugar crystallisation more difficult, leading mills to make more ethanol.
Global Sugar Consumption
Our estimate for global sugar consumption in 2026 is down by 0.7 million tonnes and now stands at 177.7 million tonnes.
Sugar prices have halved from their 2023 peak, and we hope this could support an uplift in consumption. Part of the recent weakness in growth across many countries has been driven by high food price inflation, which has changed purchasing behaviour. We will need to monitor closely whether our consumption estimates need to rise again in the future.
However, sugar consumption growth is challenging. It’s battling greater awareness of sugar intake, tighter regulation of sugary foods and drinks, and the increasing adoption of GLP-1 weight loss drugs which could undermine sugar consumption globally.
Production Surplus in 2025/26
We now project a global production surplus of 6.7 million tonnes, which would be the second-largest sugar production surplus since 2017/18.
Our projections then show a smaller surplus of 4.8 million tonnes for 26/27.
Production Update: Pakistan
We have recently increased our production forecast for Pakistan to 6.7 million tonnes for the 2025/26 season – up from 6.3 million tonnes previously.
The crop has progressed better than we’d initially thought.
However, we have revised our Pakistan consumption estimate down slightly given increased consumer awareness of sugar intake.
This could mean that Pakistan will be left with increased stock this season.
Other Sugar Producers at a Glance…
All figures in million tonnes tel quel
