North American Sugar Consumption Gradually Declines

Insight Focus

North American sugar consumption is not growing. US consumption is declining, Mexico is broadly flat, and the modest gains in Canada’s food and beverage sector are not large enough to offset the US drop. In aggregate, the region is stable to lower.

Each country shows similar pressure on per capita sugar consumption, but the reasons differ. The three markets are linked through the USMCA. In name it is a free trade area, but sugar trade is managed and restricted. To understand the outlook, we need to look at each country in turn.

American Sugar Consumption

We live in interesting times. American per capita sugar consumption is falling once again. In fact, all caloric sweetener consumption is falling. 

This bucks a recent trend where sugar was seemingly finding favour again after decades of losing market share to corn sweeteners. Remember all the ‘throwback’ sodas?

Source: USDA

But now it’s clear that sweeteners are not a growth market in America. Between 1970 and 2024, per capita consumption of refined sugar fell 34% according to the USDA. HFCS consumption has risen massively since 1970 when it was practically unused – but since 1999 it has decreased in per-capita consumption by around 45%.

We suspect there are several reasons for this. Consumers are more aware of the amount of sugar in their foods. Food price inflation has changed what people buy. GLP-1 drugs are now widely used, and suppress appetite and reduce impulsive human behaviour like binge-eating. 

Mexico – HFCS vs Sugar

As in America, Mexico uses both HFCS and sugar, predominantly in the beverage sector. Sugar is made domestically, while HFCS is made locally and imported from the US. 

USDA trade data indicates that Mexican imports rose sharply through the mid-2000s and peaked at just over 1.1 million tonnes in 2012. Since then, volumes have stabilised. 

 
Source: USDA

In 2020, Mexico introduced front-of-pack warning labels on products high in sugar, calories and other ingredients. The policy was designed to discourage consumption of unhealthy foods and beverages. However, the import data does not show a clear and sustained drop in HFCS volumes after the labelling rules were introduced.

In the last ten years, Mexican sugar consumption has also remained broadly stable.

Canada – A Processing-Driven Market

Canada plays a different role in the North American sugar system. Unlike Mexico, it is not a major raw sugar exporter to the United States. Unlike the US, it does not have a large domestic sugar cane and beet industry. It does have a large refining sector, though, and in recent years food and beverage manufacturing has clustered near refiners. Canada’s growth in sugar consumption reflects this expansion in food processing capacity. 

The Last Decade of North American Sugar Consumption

In absolute terms, total sugar consumption across North America has remained stable over the past decade, with only modest country-level shifts. Canada has been the only country to grow their absolute sugar consumption, with an increase of 20% in the decade – up to 1.33 million tonnes in 2025/26.

 
•    Canadian per-capita consumption has increased since 2020. This marks a clear break from the flat trend seen pre-COVID. We think some of this growth may reflect food processing expansion in the country – as mentioned earlier.

•    Mexican per capita sugar consumption has been broadly stable since 2020.

•    American per-capita sugar consumption has declined gradually across the decade.

This lack of similarity extends across product categories too. Sadly, sugar consumption varies country to country, complicating its analysis.

In Detail – Soft Drinks

The North American soft drinks markets is one of the strongest in the world. The amount of sugar sold in soft drinks in the region is stable, and in the case of the USA may even be growing. This growth pre-dates the Trump administration’s efforts to increase sugar-sweetened soft drink availability at the expense of HFCS-sweetened drinks.

This flat/growing trend is in contrast with many other regions around the world like Europe. There, mature markets like the UK, France and Germany have all seen declines in per capita sugar consumption in soft drinks. This has been thanks to reformulation driven by sugar taxes and regulation around junk food advertising.

 
•    Canada does not have a sugar tax, with a pilot in Newfoundland and Labrador ending in 2025. 

•    The US also does not have a federal sugar tax. Several cities have implemented local taxes (Boulder, Philadelphia, Oakland, Seattle and San Francisco) which are too limited to register on national statistics. The US’s high level of sugar sold in soft drinks is especially interesting when you consider many of the soft drinks in the US are HFCS-sweetened. Soda consumption in America is therefore higher than it appears from these stats and is clearly part of the national culture. 

•    Speaking of soft drinks being part of the culture… the reason Mexico isn’t included in the chart above is that it is off the chart. It is the major outlying country when looking at sugar consumed in soda. This is despite the introduction of a soda tax in 2014 and restrictions on advertising. Soft drink supply chains in Mexico are so formidable that soft drinks seem to outcompete water in some remote rural regions.

 
Source: Euromonitor, United Nations, World Bank

Chocolate Confectionery

Per-capita sugar consumption from chocolate confectionery shows limited growth across North America, with trends differing by country.

•    Canada peaks in 2022 before a moderate decline, with the subsequent decline coinciding with a sharp rise in cocoa prices.

•    The US shows a flat profile through the period, with a noticeable decline post-2021. The later surge in cocoa prices likely reinforced this softness through higher retail prices.

•    Chocolate consumption is not high in Mexico. We wonder if the requirement for a cold supply chain makes it hard for chocolate consumption to grow meaningfully…? After all, cocoa beans have been consumed in Mesoamerica for thousands of years… 
 
 

Sweet Biscuits

Where Mexico doesn’t eat chocolate, it makes up for it with sweet biscuits.

•    In Canada, per-capita consumption has fallen consistently since 2020.

•    The US remains relatively stable over the period, with only a modest decline after 2020–21. Similarly to chocolate, sweet biscuits have faced limited direct policy pressure, and changes appear driven more by consumer behaviour than regulation.

•    Mexico continues to record strong and consistent per-capita growth, with consumption now clearly above Canadian levels.

Breakfast Cereals

We wonder whether breakfast cereals are largely an Anglosphere phenomenon. Regardless, they’ve been under scrutiny for over a decade in North America, with cereals often cited as a hidden source of sugar for children and adults. This has translated to a decline in per-capita consumption in Canada and the US.

 
Source: Euromonitor, United Nations, World Bank

Juice

Similarly to cereals, juice drinks have become less popular in the US and Canada, perhaps as people become more aware of their sugar intake. Mexico hasn’t followed the same trend and has grown in per-capita consumption.

Alcoholic RTDs

Alcoholic RTDs (think cocktail cans) stand out as the fastest-growing source of added sugar across North America. Per-capita sugar intake from RTDs rises sharply after 2019 in all three markets, with the strongest growth in Canada and the US. 

This reflects rapid expansion of the RTD category, supported by higher value RTDs, flavour innovation and a shift towards convenience-led alcohol formats. Unlike soft drinks and juice, RTDs have largely avoided sugar-specific regulation, allowing added sugar levels to remain relatively high.

While RTDs still contribute less sugar than core food and beverage categories, their growth helps explain why total per-capita sugar consumption has not fallen faster, despite clear declines in biscuits, cereals, and juice.

The Effect of GLP-1

North America leads the GLP-1 market, so a large portion of consumers are likely to change how they eat – affecting the consumption of sugar. 

After six months of usage, GLP-1 users report lower spend across many of the sugariest categories: soft drinks, sweet bakery, cookies, ice cream, candy and savoury snacks all show declines. The largest reductions appear in ultra-processed products, while spending on fresh produce and yoghurt increases modestly. 

This pattern suggests that GLP-1 drugs do not only suppress overall calorie intake but reshape dietary composition away from added-sugar and high-fat foods. For the North American sugar market, this matters because these categories account for a disproportionate share of refined sugar and HFCS usage.

If adoption rates continue to expand, the demand impact is likely to be concentrated in those segments that have historically underpinned sweetener consumption. 

Source: Novo Nordisk; Kim, Singh, Winer, New York University, 2017; Hristakeva et al, Cornell SC Johnson College of Business, 2024

Trade Policy and the Road to the 2026 USMCA Review

The USMCA – the trade agreement between the US, Mexico and Canada – must be formally reviewed on July 1, 2026. Although called a “review,” the process could lead to a full renegotiation of key terms.

Sugar has long been one of the most sensitive parts of North American trade. The US tightly controls sugar imports to support domestic prices. Mexico depends on access to the US market for part of its sugar exports. Canada’s food manufacturing sector relies heavily on stable cross-border trade.

The 2026 review therefore creates uncertainty. The US could seek to reduce Mexican sugar access or use the negotiations to pressure Canada on industrial policy issues. If access is tightened, domestic sugar prices in the US would likely remain high or rise further.

Higher prices reduce consumption in price-sensitive categories such as soft drinks and confectionery. As a result, trade outcomes in 2026 could directly influence future sugar demand across North America.