Insight Focus
Rain raised soil moisture from its driest to well above normal. Early wheat and rye crops are developing faster than usual, with some yield losses due to heat. Farmers face subsidy cuts, ethanol plant closures and a 15-year industry shift while preparing for future challenges.
What’s Happening on the Farm?
I confused the weather gods with a purchase. As soon as Jeff (Amazon) delivered it, it rained!
And it rained in a very kind fashion—enough to take our soil moisture from driest ever to wettest ever at this point in the year. Temperatures had cooled but then bounced back well above normal and are forecast to rise again. The real question is: what does this mean? See below.
Sampling of leaf material continues, though there was a crisis when I lost my ‘N Tester’—abandoned somewhere in a field. Try finding a small plastic object in a field of standing wheat. On the plus side, this forced me to research a SPAD meter, and I think I’ve found an improvement.
Technically, this is our quiet time of year—when holidays are taken and machinery is repaired or renewed as needed. Like many farms, we’re conducting stock checks, not only for pesticides but for machinery parts too, so we can make informed purchasing decisions for the coming season.
Seeds and fertilizers have been bought, and we’re getting ready to start again. I’ve even bought a lottery ticket to see if my winnings might keep us afloat— I must report that thus far this approach has not been going well.
I recently took the opportunity to tour Northern Europe’s fields and was delighted to stay overnight in Colditz Castle—my godfather spent two years there.
Wheat deliveries are all but done, allowing us to clean the storage sheds. I found grain weevil in a sample of barley we’d kept in the office. How did they get into a sealed plastic bag 500 metres from the store?
What Stage are the Crops at?
Wheat/Rye/Spring Barley
Rye continues to grow with enthusiasm. Surprisingly, dry matter content has increased rapidly and, consequently, we’re a third of the way through harvest—usually we start around July 2, not June 16. For these crops, “how early the harvest is” may be the story of the season.
Wheat is following a similar pattern. Flowering began much earlier than expected and is likely to lead to an early harvest. If this is correct, yields will be lower. I run a yield prediction model each year, and it has reduced our yield by 0.23 tonne/ha over the past week. This is principally due to the additional heat received above “normal.” Weirdly, later-drilled wheat, which has flowered later, has not shown this yield loss. I think this means that early-drilled wheat crops will disappoint, whilst later ones will surprise – unusual.
Spring barley is behind wheat in development and seems relatively unbothered so far. Winter barley, locally, is looking stressed, having come into ear 10–14 days earlier than usual. And, if you put your ear to the wind, you’ll hear combines cutting. Showing interest, I visited one of the buyers of this crop.
OSR
I’m hoping this crop has enjoyed the sun, even if not the heat. Cumulative sunlight this year will make records. We applied late sulphur to boost oil content—this crop isn’t just about basic yield. High nitrogen levels at this time of year supress oil production. We will desiccate in about five days and harvest will be 14 days later, unless the rain gods wish to seek revenge – like they did two years ago with that one thunderstorm over my single field of rapeseed.
Sugar Beet
Our two crops have mostly merged into one and look good. Even my agronomist admitted there’s little he would change today.
I hear nothing regarding sugar prices for the 2026 harvest; no doubt the processor will announce a drop in price just as my combine breaks down while wandering through my second field of wheat. In the gossip—if you want to know something, ask a lorry driver—it is said that the processor is trying to increase his own farmed area because, presumably, he expects the farmer’s area to drop due to dissatisfaction with the price. I’m not sure how this works, but no doubt a corporate accountant can explain.
Maize
We have some late-planted maize which is struggling—it really needs a drink. Aside from that and current market value, things are okay. An advisor from western England visited recently, and their idea of “okay” is very different to mine. I’ll have to plagiarise it—and they worry about AI…
What are your Biggest Concerns?
I don’t know how many bombs it takes to move crude oil and wheat prices; seemingly, there aren’t enough of them.
The UK government continues to undermine the English farmer, to the point where the “standard” subsidy cheque will cost the government more to process than I will receive.
I had suggested that one of the two ethanol plants in England would close; it seems both might. The last government threw a whole lot of money at a US company to keep their fertiliser production going in England for the carbon dioxide — presumably, the ethanol companies are hoping for the same.
I had lunch with a friend of mine last week, and we were discussing the state of farming. He cheerfully said that this “realignment” currently underway will take 15 years — this is what the model says, apparently. The questions are, “Who is going to be affected, and when was the start date?”
I’ve mentioned it before: ADAS runs a yield competition called YEN. The aim is to drive yield up, mainly for wheat. This project is soon to be dropped, so who will be interested in yield growth?
I’ve stopped worrying about the weather patterns, as described last time, and have decided to do something about it. We are building a plan that may or may not address this as an issue.
But Cecelia likes the sun.
