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Insight Focus
Record 2026 sugar production forecast weighs on trade. The USDA lifted its 2026 production outlook to a record 9.41 million short tons, driven by stronger cane output in Florida and Louisiana, while beet production was unchanged. With imports lowered but usage not rising, forward prices face pressure as demand concerns and GLP-1 impacts add to sluggish market activity.
Higher 2026 Sugar Output Caps Market Activity
Activity in the cash sugar market was slow this week, due in part to a forecast for record-large US sugar production. Prices were unchanged.
The USDA, in its February 10 WASDE report , forecast 2026 US sugar production at 9.41 million short tons (8.54 million tonnes). This latest forecast was 29,000 short tons higher than the prior month’s forecast and surpassed last year’s record production estimate of 9.39 million short tons.
The modest but potentially record-setting increase in 2026 sugar production was due to an upward adjustment in cane sugar output, which the USDA pegged at 4.31 million short tons—up 0.7% from January and up 7% from the 4 million short tons estimated in 2025.
The USDA said 2026 cane sugar output in Florida was forecast at 2.08 million short tons, up about 8% from 1.93 million short tons produced last year. Cane sugar production in Louisiana was forecast at 2.23 million short tons, up 6% from 2.1 million short tons produced a year earlier.
Source: USDA
The USDA did not adjust its forecast for 2026 US beet sugar production, which was set at 5.1 million short tons, down 5% from 5.37 million short tons estimated during the 2024-25 marketing year.
The forecast for 2025-26 US sugar imports was lowered to 2.24 million short tons, down 0.5% from January and down 34% from 3.4 million short tons in 2024-25. Imports from Mexico were unchanged at 220,000 short tons, down 56% from 504,000 short tons last year.
Source: USDA
Other segments on the February supply-and-demand balance sheet were mostly unchanged, including the Department’s forecast for 2025-26 deliveries, which were set at 12.15 million short tons, down 2.4% from 12.45 million short tons estimated in 2024-25.
Supply Growth Outpaces Usage, Pressuring Forward Prices
The increase in sugar production and supply, without a corresponding increase in the outlook for sugar usage, added another layer of weight to the market. Market observers suggested that prices for 2027 domestic supplies, which are slightly firmer than 2026, may edge lower.
Suppliers so far have locked into the firmer values for next year, especially sugar beet processors, due in part to the weather risk to this year’s production. Sugar beet piles stored outdoors may be subject to premature thawing if air temperatures warm too quickly or for too long, which could impact sugar levels.
Activity in the market remained slow and limited to small fill-in sales. The demand outlook was further unsettled after a panel of analysts and industry executives at the recent annual sugar conference in Dubai noted that sugar consumption was declining in the US, due in part to the increasing use of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, which the panel said can reduce calorie intake by as much as 39%.
The corn sweetener market was routine, with refiners focused on producing and shipping products.
