Insight Focus
The 2026/27 world sugar balance has tightened slightly since last month. We now forecast a 600,000 tonne deficit, mainly because lower than expected EU beet area has reduced our production forecast.
2026/27 at a Glance…
We forecast global sugar production at 178.5 million tonnes in 2026/27, down slightly since last month. Global consumption is unchanged at 179 million tonnes. This leaves the market in a 600,000-tonne deficit, as a lower EU-27 crop removes most of the small buffer we had in last month’s balance.
We’ve been flagging the risk of a deficit emerging in 2026/27 in our recent reports: this month we’ve seen another notable move in this direction.
2026/27 Balance Tightens
The main change this month is in Europe. We have cut our 2026/27 EU-27 sugar production forecast to 13.9 million tonnes, after the European Commission’s preliminary beet area estimates pointed to a smaller planted area. The latest figures suggest farmers have planted around 8.5% less beet area than last year, which is a bigger fall than we had previously expected.
With average yields, that would leave EU-27 production at its lowest level in the post-reform period. There are still several months until harvest, so weather and crop development will matter. We will adjust our forecast as we hear more concrete details on how yields pan out.
Given the large surplus in 2025/26 and stock build, the small deficit we now project for 2026/27 does not create a global shortage, but it does make the 2026/27 balance tighter. Production is now forecast below consumption, leaving less room for further crop disappointment in other key producers later in the season.
Global Sugar Production
Global sugar production is forecast at 178.5 million tonnes in 2026/27. That is lower than last month, but still within the range seen in recent years.
Most major 2026/27 production forecasts are unchanged this month. China remains at 12.9 million tonnes, India at 28.4 million tonnes and Thailand at 9.8 million tonnes. The key revision is the EU-27, where expected production has been cut to 13.9 million tonnes.
Global Sugar Consumption
Consumption is unchanged this month. Growth remains modest, with high food prices, reformulation, health awareness and the GLP-1 story continuing to limit upside in some markets.
We now forecast global sugar consumption at 177.9 million tonnes in 2025/26 and 179.0 million tonnes in 2026/27.
Production Surplus in 2025/26 and 2026/27
The 2026/27 balance has moved into deficit since last month. Our latest production and consumption forecasts indicate a 600,000-tonne deficit.
The change is not dramatic, but it is important. A small deficit can still be manageable, especially after the large surplus forecast for 2025/26, but it leaves less margin for weather problems or lower-than-expected output later in the season.
Other Sugar Producers at a Glance…
