Insight Focus
We expect that the 2025/26 season will bring a global sugar stock rebuild. Production could be the second highest on record. We think a major point of difference between us, and the rest of the market is that we forecast declining global consumption.
2025/26 at a Glance…
Global Sugar Production
Our estimate for global sugar production in 2025/26 is 185.9m tonnes. If this level is achieved it would be the second-highest sugar production on record, tailing shortly after the 2017/2018 season.
Many cane crops in the Northern Hemisphere are now entering their peak growth phase, during which sufficient rainfall is essential for healthy development.
One such case is India—we expect a crop recovery this year, largely dependent on the monsoon, which has arrived early.
This period is also critical for beet crops in the Northern Hemisphere. However, a lack of rainfall in northern and western Europe is raising serious concerns, as soil moisture levels have dropped to seasonal lows. We are closely monitoring the weather conditions and will revise our forecast as needed.
Global Sugar Consumption
Our outlook for sugar consumption is one of a gradual decline, with our forecast down by 1.1m tonnes from our previous update. We now think global sugar consumption will hit 178.3m tonnes in 2026.
We do not expect significant growth in 2025 or in the years ahead. This is mainly attributed to food price inflation, increased health consciousness around sugar intake, and the growing impact of GLP-1 drugs.
We are concerned that the emergence of GLP-1 receptor agonist drugs like Ozempic and Zepbound will undermine sugar consumption globally. In 2025 and 2026 this is likely to occur only in the world’s wealthiest countries, where many consumers can afford these drugs.
However, semaglutide (Ozempic) comes off patent in many countries in 2026. At this point, drug manufacturers will be able to release cheaper biosimilars, increasing availability. This should lead to greater uptake in other less-wealthy countries too.
We have factored in a decline in consumption to account for the increasing influence of GLP-1 usage for the USA from 2024 onwards, extending to most G20 countries in 2025 and 2026.
Production Surplus in 2025/26
We forecast a production surplus of 7.5m tonnes in 2025/26. The world will rebuild a proportion of the stock drawdown that’s happened since 2020. This would also be the largest production surplus since the 2017/18 season.
Production Update: India
After a disappointing crop this year, we expect Indian production to rebound in 2025/26 to 32m tonnes of sugar.
This crop recovery will be dependent on the monsoon rains. This year the monsoon rains came early, bringing plenty of rainfall to help recover water levels of reservoirs in Maharashtra and Karnataka which farmers use for irrigation in the dry post-monsoon period.
Other Sugar Producers at a Glance…
