Insight Focus
Our estimate for global production is down slightly. However, it could still be the second-highest production on record. We have recently reduced our CS Brazilian production forecast. We maintain an outlook of gradual decline in global sugar consumption in the years to come.
2025/26 at a Glance…
Global Sugar Production
We estimate that global sugar production will hit 183.4 million tonnes. We maintain that this could be the second-highest production on record if achieved.
While we continue to expect modest crop recoveries in some of the world’s major sugar producers, all other factors, such as sufficient rainfall, will need to be in line for this to be reality.
We are expecting India to have a good crop in the next two years due to the timely monsoon rains, however we have concerns over beet development in some European countries like Germany and France where the crop has been affected by Stolbur disease spread by cicadas, and beet yellow virus respectively.
Global Sugar Consumption
We expect global sugar consumption to decline gradually, reaching 178.4 million tonnes this year.
We do not anticipate significant growth in 2025 or in the years ahead. This outlook mainly reflects food price inflation, greater health consciousness around sugar intake, and the growing impact of GLP-1 drugs.
We are concerned that the emergence of GLP-1 receptor agonist drugs like Ozempic and Zepbound will undermine sugar consumption globally. In 2025 and 2026 this is likely to occur only in the world’s wealthiest countries, where many consumers can afford these drugs.
However, semaglutide (Ozempic) comes off patent in many countries in 2026. At that point, drug manufacturers will be able to release cheaper biosimilars, increasing availability. This should lead to greater uptake in other less-wealthy countries too.
We have therefore factored in a decline in consumption, starting in the US in 2024 and extending to most G20 countries in 2025 and 2026, to reflect the growing influence of GLP-1 usage.
Production Surplus in 2025/26
We forecast a production surplus of 5 million tonnes in 2025/26, allowing the world to rebuild part of the stock drawdown seen since 2020. This would be the largest production surplus since the 2017/18 season.
Production Update: CS Brazil
We estimate that CS Brazil will produce 39.1 million tonnes of sugar in the 2025/26 season.
Mills in the frontier states have increasingly been switching over to ethanol production as Brazilian sugar and ethanol prices have almost converged. As a result, we have revised our sugar mix down to 50.7% and overall sugar availability has been reduced by 1.6 million tonnes from our previous estimate.
Other Sugar Producers at a Glance…
