Insight Focus
We estimate global sugar production at 184.6m tonnes, the second highest on record. We have revised our expectations for CS Brazilian sugar production higher. This should further help the world to rebuild its sugar stocks.
2025/26 at a Glance…
Global Sugar Production
Our estimate for global sugar production has increased by 1.2 million tonnes this month.
The increased output is driven primarily by Centre-South Brazil (the world’s largest cane-growing region), where both the sugar mix and ATR (sucrose yields) have exceeded expectations so far this season. We now forecast production at 40 million tonnes for the season, in line with last year’s output.
Beyond Brazil, we continue to expect crop recoveries in other key producers such as India and Thailand.
Global Sugar Consumption
Our estimate for global sugar consumption remains unchanged at 178.4 million tonnes this year.
Looking ahead, we do not expect meaningful consumption growth in 2025 or subsequent years. This is primarily due to:
- Persistent food price inflation
- Rising health consciousness around sugar intake
- The growing impact of GLP-1 drugs
We are concerned that the emergence of GLP-1 receptor agonist drugs like Ozempic and Zepbound will undermine sugar consumption globally. In 2025 and 2026 this is likely to occur only in the world’s wealthiest countries, where many consumers can afford these drugs.
However, semaglutide (Ozempic) comes off patent in many countries in 2026. At that point, drug manufacturers will be able to release cheaper biosimilars, increasing availability. This should lead to greater uptake in other less-wealthy countries too.
We have therefore factored in a decline in consumption, starting in the US in 2024 and extending to most G20 countries in 2025 and 2026, to reflect the growing influence of GLP-1 usage.
Production Surplus in 2025/26
We now project a global production surplus of 6.2 million tonnes in 2025/26. This will allow for a partial rebuilding of stocks that have been drawn down since 2020. If realised, it would be the second-largest sugar production surplus since 2017/18.
Production Update: Thailand
We expect a recovery in Thai sugar production from last season, to 11.1 million tonnes.
We remain cautious about the crop due to White Cane Leaf disease being present in a large area of cane in the upper Northeast region of Thailand. However, prospects look more favourable in the central region, where sufficient water supply and irrigation support cane growth.
Rainfall has improved this year and unlike the last two seasons, Thailand has not experienced any significant drought, allowing the ratoon cane to recover from last year’s drought-related impacts. Typhoon Kajiki is forecasted to bring heavy rainfall which may temporarily disrupt fieldwork, but we expect sugar output to be unaffected.
Other Sugar Producers at a Glance…
