Opinion Focus
CS Brazil’s off-season has begun. Now, we are keeping an eye on expectations for 2026/27, which starts in April. Good rains indicate that greater crushing is expected.
1st Half of January: CS Brazil in Offseason
UNICA released today the harvest data for the first half of January of the 2025/26 harvest.
With only 9 sugarcane processing units still in operation, the Center-South of Brazil is now in the off-season. The mills should resume activities only at the end of March, marking the beginning of the 2026/27 harvest.
In the last fortnight, sugar production showed a weak performance, despite the crushing having come in above estimates. The deviation was explained by a greater destination of the raw material for ethanol, as signaled by the sugar mix of only 10% in the period. In the accumulated of the harvest, the numbers remain in line with CZ’s projections.
Last week, we revised our estimates for the 2026/27 harvest in the Center-South. Given the low levels of pricing so far, we expect a more dynamic harvest in terms of production decisions by the mills. As a result, we reduced our mix forecast to 48.3%.
Weather conditions remain favorable. Consistent rainfall since November, with January ending above the historical average, indicates potential for greater sugarcane availability. We raised our crushing estimate to 623 million tonnes. Even so, the lower sugar mix results in total sugar production projected at 40 million tonnes for CS Brazil, 700 thousand tonnes below the initial estimate.
We are close monitoring the parity all CS Brazil states. Mills in border states such as Mato Grosso do Sul and Goiás were the first to respond to weaker sugar prices, swiftly shifting production toward ethanol. As the new crop season begins in April, production flexibility is likely to increase further, requiring continuous tracking of mix decisions.
