Opinion Focus
UNICA released the production data for the 1st half of December. Data show that sugar volumes in CS Brasil already exceed 40 mmt. Heavy rains in December limited field operations but crushing remains in line with projections.
1H December: 40 MMT of Sugar
UNICA released today the crop data for the first fortnight of December.
With approximately 27% of the mills still in operation in the fortnight, crushing and sugar production showed a retreat. By December 16th, 208 mills had ended their activities, a number in line with that recorded in the same period of the previous year. It is estimated that, by the end of December, 244 mills will have completed the 2025/26 harvest.
Both crushing and production followed the projected downward trend, remaining slightly higher than expected. The mix showed the same dynamics, coming close to the estimates. It should be noted that, despite the retraction of almost 30% in the fortnightly production compared to the previous year, in the accumulated data, the sugar production exceeds that of the last harvest, totalling 40.16 million tons.
The rains caused six days of stoppage of operations. Despite being higher compared to previous years, rainfall in the Center-South of Brazil remains below average for January 2026. On the other hand, the above-average volume recorded in the last two months in some regions created good expectations for the beginning of the year, a decisive period for defining the quality of the harvest that begins in April. We continue to monitor the accumulated rainfall in the main producing regions on a daily basis.
With the beginning of the off-season in Brazil, attention turns to the upcoming 2026/27 harvest. So far, our numbers remain unchanged, with 610 mmt of sugarcane and 40.7 mmt of sugar. Unlike the last 3 years, this harvest should be much more dynamic in relation to the mix. The sugar and ethanol parity must be closely monitored, as it will determine the choice of producers.
