Opinion Focus
UNICA released its update for the second half of October today. The data continues to indicate a stronger diversion of sucrose toward ethanol production. ATR declined due to the significant rainfall recorded throughout October. Even so, robust cane crushing levels continue to support the projection of 40.2 MMT of sugar for the 2025/26 season.
2nd Fortnight of October: Rains Lowering Cane Quality.
UNICA released today the harvest data for the second half of October.
The production mix continued to decline, reaching 46%, influenced by the lower sugar prices. As a result, ethanol volumes outperformed expectations, coming in 13% above the projected level for the period.
Regarding cane quality, a 5% decrease was observed between the first and second halves of October. This decline is linked to the increase in rainfall during the month, marking the beginning of the wet season in Brazil. In the second half of October, the Center-South region experienced two days of operational shutdowns due to rain, further contributing to the reduction in cane quality.
Despite the reduction in the production mix and ATR, cane crushing and sugar output remain strong, supporting the projection of 40.2 million tonnes of sugar for the 2025/26 CS Brazil season.
As the end of the harvest approaches, the shutdown of several mills has already begun. According to the report, 54 mills closed their operations in the latest fortnight, bringing the total to 74 units so far. Despite this, current harvest activity remains broadly in line with the average of the past five seasons.
To monitor daily rainfall levels in CS Brazil, visit: Weather Dashboard.
