Opinion Focus
UNICA’s update for the second half of September was released, showing that CZ’s figures remain in line with actual results. The report reflected a recovery in ATR, marking the highest value of the 2025/26 season, and a significant decline in the sugar mix.
Second Half of September: Highest ATR of the Season and Strong Production Figures
The latest UNICA update for the second half of September was released this week. Our estimates remain largely in line with the reported figures:
The mix showed a reduction for the third consecutive fortnight, reflecting the narrowing parity between sugar and ethanol. Compared to the previous period, the indicator fell by over 2p.p, now standing at 51.17% (the lowest level since the first half of May, the beginning of the 2025/26 season). The decline was mainly driven by the Central-West states, where incentives for ethanol production are already higher than for sugar.
Cane quality continues to show improvement, reflected in an ATR of 157.48 kg/tonne, exceeding our projections by nearly 3% – despite the recent rainfall that could have affected cane quality.
Cane crushing and sugar production figures followed the same trend, showing strong results in the last fortnight. Both came in 4% above our expectations, with sugar at 3.13 million tonnes (vs. 3.00 million tonnes) and cane crushing at 40.88 million tonnes (vs. the projected 39.15 million tonnes). If this trend continues, the Center-South region of Brazil is expected to surpass 40 million tonnes of sugar production this season.
