Opinion Focus
UNICA released the data for the second half of December, and the numbers are in line with our estimates. CS Brazil has already reached 600 mmt of sugarcane and 40.2 million tonnes of sugar, as projected by CZ for the 2025/26 crop.
2H’December: Sugar Production Reached 40.2 mmt
UNICA released today the crop data for the second half of December of the 2025/26 harvest.
We had projected a lower crushing, given the indications that a greater number of mills would have already ended their activities for the 25/26 harvest. However, with 65 mills still in operation, 42 of which are sugar producers, the accumulated crushing has already exceeded 600 million tonnes of sugarcane. Despite this, the number of producing units remains below that observed in the same fortnight of the 24/25 harvest, when 59 mills were still active.
The better weather conditions in the second half of the month compared to the first half of the month also contributed to a good crushing performance, since the Center-South recorded only two days of stoppage of operations – compared to the 6 days recorded in the previous fortnight. Finally, December ended with above-average rainfall, and the highest volume recorded among the last harvests.
The volume of rainfall in this 1st quarter of 2026 becomes decisive for us to understand the course of the 2026/27 harvest. It is already possible to observe that, in the first half of January, there were four days of stoppage in the CS due to the rains, indicating good volumes on the fields. Forecasts indicate that January should close at 174 mm in CS, which, despite being slightly below the historical average, is still a significantly higher volume than that recorded in the last 2 harvests.
In the accumulated, the harvest numbers remain in line with our estimates. Sugar production has already reached 40.2 million tonnes, a level projected by CZ, and we do not expect significant variations in the coming weeks, considering that the harvest is nearing its end. According to data from UNICA, 35 sugar and ethanol producing units closed their activities in the first half of January, totaling 241 mills out of operation.
With little volume priced for the 26/27 harvest, and the sugar and ethanol parity narrower, the 2026/27 harvest that starts in April should be much more dynamic in terms of production mix than that seen in the last 3 cycles.
