Insight Focus
The 2025/26 CS Brazil harvest officially ended in March. With that, UNICA released the official closing numbers. In addition, the numbers for the first half of the 2026 harvest came out, indicating a clear trend of reduction in the sugar mix.
Second Half of March: End of the 2025/26 harvest
The 2025/26 harvest has been completed and the final official figures were released by UNICA last week.
The producing units in the Centre-South concluded the 2025/2026 harvest with 611.15 million tonnes of sugarcane processed, 10.78 million tonnes less than in 2024/25. Sugar production ended with 40.43 million tonnes, practically stable in relation to the previous harvest.
Ethanol production in 2025/2026 totaled 33.7 billion/l, with 27% represented by corn ethanol, which reached 9.2 billion/l of production and advanced more than 12% compared to the last harvest.
Start of the 2026/27 Harvest
The 2026/26 harvest officially began in the first half of April. According to UNICA, until April 15, CS Brasil’s sugarcane crushing reached 19.5 million tonnes, an increase of almost 20% compared to the same period of the previous cycle, indicating a good start to the harvest with good sugarcane availability and favorable weather for operations.
With only one day of rain stoppage in operations during the first half of April, many mills were able to advance the start of activities for the 2026/27 harvest. According to UNICA, 52 mills had started operations before the official start of the harvest on April 1. During the first half of the harvest, another 126 units started operations, totaling 195 mills operating in April 1H.
The new harvest began with a notable preference for ethanol production. Of the total crushed sugarcane, only 33% was directed to sugar production, and more than two-thirds of the volume was destined to ethanol production.
Sugar continues to trade at a discount of almost 4 c/lb to ethanol and in our forecast of 48% mix we have already considered the border states maximizing their ethanol production. Given that the mills are still poorly hedged for the harvest that has begun, with less than 50% of prices, we expect a much more dynamic harvest in terms of mix decision than seen in the last three years.
However, if ethanol prices remain above sugar for the next few months, the possibility increases that some of the main producing states (São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Paraná) will switch from a sugar mix to a more alcoholic one, which may result in the sugar mix falling below the current scenario of 48%.
