Insight Focus
The US cash sugar market activity remained subdued last week. Extreme weather and Jones Act delays are tightening sugar supply. March deliveries were strong, while the industry awaits the outcome of several USDA reports.
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Despite continued strength in the global and domestic raw sugar futures markets, booking activity in the US cash sugar market assumed a subdued pace last week. Spot prices were steady. Prices for 2027 were mostly unchanged, but the high end of the price range for Midwest beet sugar dropped to 46c/lb FOB, from 50c the week before.
Still, some participants—mostly sellers—indicated there was a firmness in the market, with nearly all the strength attributed to rising energy prices and their impact on the No. 11 world raw sugar futures market. One supplier said it was unlikely that 2027 prices would fall below the current low-end range values. More buyers have started asking for price quotes, but most appeared unmotivated to secure coverage for 2027, even though many users had not yet covered half of their needs for next year.
“I think they just see the inventories,” one trade source said. “Even if they are working themselves down, they’re still high, and I don’t feel the buyers see any reason to jump in and buy right now.”
Weather, Transport Disruptions Pressure Supply
Weather also provided support. Temperatures swinging from record highs to record lows in recent weeks wreaked havoc on sugar beets still to be processed and stored outdoors. The expectation was that the USDA is likely to lower its 2025–26 beet sugar production forecast in the next WASDE report, scheduled for April 9.
Deliveries continued at a strong pace, with some suppliers saying March has been “one of our best months on record.” In its March WASDE, the USDA raised the 2025–26 forecast for food deliveries to 12.27 million short tons, up 117,000 short tons from February, and some analysts expect the Department to do so again in the April report.
There were also active discussions about potential forfeitures, with most of the talk spotlighting Louisiana. The state is forecast to have record cane sugar production this year.
However, much of the raw cane may never make it up the Mississippi River to reach refiners, largely due to the Trump administration recently issuing a 60-day pause on the Jones Act, which requires goods transported between US ports to be carried on US-built, US-owned, and US-crewed vessels. The pause increased competition for labour and equipment, especially for local sugar growers.
The USDA recently said it does not expect to purchase and sell sugar harvested from the 2025 crop year under the Feedstock Flexibility Program, indicating the Department does not plan to manage forfeitures this quarter.
Activity in the corn sweetener market was routine, with the industry awaiting the USDA’s March 31 Prospective Plantings report for more details on corn and other crop planting intentions for 2026.
