Insight Focus
The US Cash sugar market remains steady as spot prices firm. Contract activity eased as uncertainty over duties and crop risks kept some buyers in the spot market. USDA projections show lower stocks, though the stocks-to-use ratio remains above balance, signalling oversupply.
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Activity in the cash sugar market was steady this week. Prices for 2026–27 were unchanged, while spot and the balance of the 2026 calendar year were firmer.
The recent fervour of contract negotiations and active booking began to settle after several users extended contracts through 2027. Those still needing coverage felt too unnerved by the present uncertainties surrounding the market and were more comfortable retreating to the spot market for now.
A major concern for users was the potential for additional duties on sugar imports, which some have rumoured may be as high as 10c/lb for raw sugar and 20c/lb for refined supplies, on top of high-tier duties.
Sellers were concerned about this year’s crop, as earlier weather-related issues likely reduced yield potential in some regions and raised expectations that US sugar production for 2026 may fall short of initial projections. This was one of the reasons some sellers said they were raising their spot prices.
“Next season is going to be very tight,” one processor said. “We’ve got sugar to cover contracts—that’s not an issue—but we’re seeing more spot interest than we anticipated, so we’re trying to manage that.”
USDA Raises Output Forecast, Stocks Stay Elevated
The USDA, in its June 11 WASDE report, projected 2026–27 US sugar production at 9.063 million short tons, up 2.9% from May but down 1.7% from 2025–26, which was forecast at 9.223 million short tons. The 2025–26 production forecast was trimmed 0.2% from the May outlook, with production reduced for both beet and cane sugar output.
Source: USDA
Deliveries for food use in 2025–26 were forecast at 12.385 million short tons, up 125,500 short tons, or 1%, from May, “based on stronger domestic deliveries and direct consumption imports during the first seven months of the fiscal year than originally forecast,” the USDA said. Unchanged from May were exports at 25,000 short tons, “other” at 105,000 short tons, and miscellaneous at zero, with total use at 12.515 million tons, up 125,500 short tons.
The USDA left unchanged from May its 2026–27 projections for total imports at 3.26 million short tons, including imports from Mexico at 1.046 million short tons, compared with the current forecast for 220,000 short tons to be imported in 2025–26.
Ending stocks for the current year were forecast at 1,851,000 short tons, down 141,000 short tons from May, with the 2025–26 ending stocks-to-use ratio at 14.8%, down from 16.1%. The Department’s “sweet spot” for this ratio is between 13.5% and 15%, which indicates a balanced market. The June forecast landing above the range signals that the domestic market is oversupplied.
Source: USDA
The domestic corn sweetener market was mostly routine, but deliveries continued to be hampered by high fuel costs. Traders expected negotiations for 2027 annual contracts to begin in late August or early September.
