Insight Focus
US sugar market activity remained slow. Weak demand continues due to rising use of GLP-1 medications, scrutiny of ultra-processed foods, and policy limits on federally funded food assistance. Supply imbalances and weather risks weigh on prices, while the USDA launches a USD 1 billion support program for sugar and specialty crop producers.
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US Sugar Market Slows
Activity in the cash sugar market was slow this week, with most buying limited to small fill-in volumes. Prices remained unchanged.
A lack of urgency permeated most markets, particularly after the USDA recently forecast record-high US sugar production for the current marketing year. If realised, it would mark the second consecutive record volume of sugar produced in the US.
Source: USDA
Meanwhile, the demand outlook remains challenged by the increasing use of GLP-1 weight-loss medications, heightened scrutiny of ultra-processed foods and policy hurdles that limit consumers’ choice and use of federally funded food assistance.
FDA Considers GRAS Petition on Refined Carbs
Another issue affecting the domestic sugar market was a citizen’s petition submitted in August to the US Food and Drug Administration, requesting that the generally recognised as safe (GRAS) status be revoked from products containing refined carbohydrates; this would include sweeteners.
The petition was filed by David Kessler, MD, a former FDA commissioner and author of books critical of many mainstream food products. Processed refined carbohydrates are described in the petition as “markers” of “ultra-processed foods” and as “primary causal determinants of metabolic harm.”
On February 10, the FDA posted an interim response letter to the petition on the regulations.gov docket, signalling that the agency is still assessing its scope and implications. On February 15, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., appeared on 60 Minutes with Kessler, stating that the petition was being considered.
Supply Imbalances Persist as USDA Launches Support Program
With the US sugar market’s supply-and-demand dynamics appearing increasingly unbalanced, discussions about prices for 2027 supplies, as well as planting intentions for the 2026 crop, have adopted a weaker tone.
Still, sellers were securing firmer values for the forward period as weather remains a risk factor, particularly for sugar beet processors. Sugar beet piles stored outdoors may be subject to premature thawing if air temperatures rise too quickly for too long, potentially impacting sugar levels.
Firmer prices may support investment for producers as input costs remain elevated. Talk of forfeitures have been circulating. On February 13, US Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins announced a new bridge-payment program that will provide USD 1 billion of assistance for specialty crops, including sugar, to “help manage impacts from market disruptions, elevated input costs, persistent inflation expenses and market losses from foreign competitors.”
The corn sweetener market was quiet. Refiners focused on producing and shipping products to fulfil contracts. Pricing was mostly steady, but the demand outlook remained uncertain as the industry faces challenges similar to those currently affecting the sugar market.
