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Insight Focus
US sugar prices remained steady last week. The USDA projected slightly lower 2025-26 sugar deliveries, though some traders see higher shipments, with updated November reports expected after the US government shutdown. Harvests continued in the Red River Valley and Louisiana, and corn sweetener contracting progressed amid mixed pricing and crop yield signals.
Domestic Sugar Steady Despite Global Price Weakness
Prices were steady in the US cash sugar market during the week ending November 7, but the trade closely watched global raw sugar futures, which fell to new five-year lows.
One refiner said domestic cane prices, which have not changed in about four and a half months, were beginning to feel some pressure from the sharp drop in world market values. However, tariffs—especially the 50% tariff on imports of Brazilian cane sugar—were helping stabilise the domestic market. There was also a sense that the world market would eventually balance itself out.
“Nobody in this world is making money selling cane sugar at 13c/lb,” the refiner said. “Long-term contraction should happen at these prices. But how that happens, and how long it takes, I don’t know.”
The decision by some countries, including Brazil and India—the top two sugar-producing nations—to increasingly favour corn as an ethanol feedstock over cane sugar was one factor contributing to the global surplus in sugar supplies. Similarly to the US, sugar demand in some countries is expected to decline.
Source: University of Illinois
Delivery Outlook Softens; Trade Awaits November WASDE
In the September 12 WASDE report—the last one issued by the USDA before the federal government shutdown began on October 1—the USDA projected 2025-26 sugar deliveries at 12 million short tons, raw value.
This projection is 0.7% lower than the 2024-25 delivery estimate of 12.15 million short tons (11 million tonnes) and 3.7% below the 2023-24 marketing year total of 12.53 million short tons. However, some in the trade argue that the USDA’s current-year delivery forecast is too low, as evidenced by an uptick in shipments they’ve observed in recent months.
Source: USDA
The trade may soon have an opportunity to compare their observations with the USDA’s updated forecasts. The Department said it will release the November Crop Production and WASDE reports on November 14 (originally scheduled for November 10). Both reports were skipped in October because of the partial government shutdown.
Harvests Continue Amid Steady Sales
Meanwhile, harvest activities continued. Sugar beet harvesting in the Red River Valley was complete. The American Sugar Cane League said Louisiana’s sugar cane harvest was about 30% complete by the end of October after a slow start, with mills reporting sugar content levels at or above the five-year average.
Sales remained slow but steady. Some users were covering increased needs for the current marketing year. It was thought that carryover amounts from 2024-25 had caused some users to delay extending contracts for 2025-26, as companies wanted to better assess their needs before overbuying as a few did the year before. Interest in 2027 contracts was minimal.
Annual contracting for 2026 corn sweetener coverage was ongoing. Buyers’ requests for lower pricing—citing forecast record-large US corn production—were offset by steadily rising corn futures and sellers’ claims that crop yields were not as high as earlier forecast by the USDA.
