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Insight Focus
US sugar market steady despite record production forecasts. Beet and cane prices held firm, with 2025-26 sales advancing slowly amid abundant supplies. USDA forecasts record output and higher stocks, while tariffs, especially from Brazil, may support prices.
US Cash Sugar Market Steady as Supplies Build
Despite bearish data from the US Department of Agriculture indicating record-high total US sugar production this year and next, the firm price undercurrent of the US cash sugar market remained solidly in place in the week ending August 15.
Both beet and cane sugar prices for the remainder of 2025 and for the next marketing year (beginning October 1) were unchanged. Sales for 2025-26 advanced slowly and were at a level where processors felt confident of steady to firm price offers.
The prevailing view was that prices for next year had bottomed, but upside potential was limited due to abundant supplies. The market will have to work through excess supplies from the 2024 crop in the 2025-26 marketing year on top of record production from this year’s crop.
WASDE Raises Production and Stocks Outlook
In the August 12 WASDE report, the USDA forecast total domestic sugar production at 9,386,000 short tons (8,514,835 tonnes), raw value, up 91,000 short tons from July and up 73,000 short tons from 2023-24. This included beet sugar at 5,415,000 short tons, up 93,360 short tons from July and up 243,000 short tons from last year, and cane sugar at 3,971,000 short tons, down 2,000 short tons from July and down 170,000 short tons from 2023-24. If realised, beet sugar and total sugar production would reach record highs in 2024-25, while cane sugar and total sugar production would set new records in 2025-26.
Source: USDA
The WASDE forecast an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 19.9% for this year, up from 17.4% in July and the highest since the 2000-01 marketing year. The Department also raised the 2025-26 ending stocks-to-use projection to 17.8%, up from 13.5% previously. The USDA’s “target” ratio ranges from 13.5% to 15.5%, with the lower end deemed an adequate supply and the upper end bordering on oversupply. Sugar users have contended that stocks tend to be too tight at 13.5%, allowing prices to be higher, while sugar producers prefer the ratio closer to the lower end.
But stocks are expected to remain well above the preferred range, and prices are steady and wanting to lean higher. To explain the conundrum, the trade pointed to one primary factor—tariffs. While most imports for the current year have already been received, if tariffs remain in effect after October 1, when the new season begins, prices may climb higher. Brazil, the leading cane sugar supplier to the US, was the main concern, with the current tariff rate at 50%.
Deliveries Steady, Crop Conditions Mixed
Deliveries of contracted sugar for 2024-25 remained steady for most processors, though some observed that the pace had begun to slow.
Sugar beet condition ratings were mostly unchanged from a week earlier. Conditions in Colorado declined for a third consecutive week. Louisiana sugar cane ratings were lower than a week earlier but still historically high.
The corn sweetener market remained quiet. Buyers typically ramp up contracting negotiations in August but may resist booking at or near year-ago price levels in order to take advantage of the bearish tone in the market after the USDA, in its August 12 Crop Production report, forecast record-high corn production this year.
