Weakness Persists in US Sugar Amid Soft Demand

This update is from Sosland Publishing’s Sweetener Report. For more information and subscription details, CLICK HERE.

Insight Focus

Cash sugar prices remained in the week ending December 5. Demand remained soft while ample supplies, strong 2025 production, and 2024–25 carry kept pressure on the market. Cane and beet markets also faced limited tariff support, persistent high-tier imports and broader demand headwinds from GLP-1 adoption and UPF scrutiny.

Weakness in cash sugar prices and slow trading persisted in the week ending December 5. Demand remained soft, while supplies were more than adequate amid strong production from the 2025 crop and carry of refined sugar from 2024-25.

Spreads between offers have widened, with some beet processors in well-sold positions and, depending on location, holding offer levels steady at the high end of the price range, even though limited sugar is being sold at those levels. Most weakness appears in the Upper Midwest, where processors in some cases have been working to clear stocks as new-crop sugar is being added daily.

Traders said some bulk refined beet sugar was trading as low as 40c/lb, possibly even dipping below 40c/lb, but with volume and other specifications. Those prices also are expected to reflect a market bottom, although with limited upside potential.

Cane Market Under Pressure

Cane sugar prices also have been under pressure as raw sugar futures have declined in recent weeks. World raws (No. 11 contract) have mounted a modest recovery but remain in the lower half of the recent trading range.

Tariffs, which appear to be having a modest impact on imports, have provided some offsetting support, although high-tier sugar continues to enter the US to compete with domestic supplies. High-tier imports have topped 1 million short tons (907,184 tonnes) the past two years and are forecast at 525,000 short tons in 2025-26, a number likely to increase as the year goes on, especially if the tariff on Brazil is lifted at some point.

Source: USDA

The beet slicing campaigns are far from over, and 2025-26 sugar production isn’t yet “in the bin,” but most plants are running strong.

Higher USDA loan rates for 2026 also have underpinned cash sugar prices.

The USDA issued its final Louisiana sugar cane harvest update as of November 23, with completion at 57%, compared with 64% a year ago and the five-year average of 55%. Harvest typically runs through December and into early January, compared with the Florida cane harvest that runs several months into the new year. The final rating of the Louisiana cane crop was 75% good-to-excellent, down from 78% a week earlier but still one of the highest late-season ratings on record.

Sugar Cane harvest, South Florida

Demand Uncertain Amid GLP-1 Impact, UPF Scrutiny

Demand remains the big question, and there is little positive news to find. The impact from GLP-1 weight-loss drugs is expected to depress demand (both domestically and in Europe), with perhaps the worst yet to come as drug prices decline and the medications become available in pill form.

Adding to demand woes is the new focus on ultra-processed foods (UPFs), most of which contain caloric sweeteners (sugar or corn syrup). The federal government has UPFs in its sights, and San Francisco last week filed a lawsuit accusing 10 of the largest food and beverage manufacturers of putting consumers’ health at risk, creating a “public health crisis,” and engaging in “deceptive marketing.”

Sugar deliveries ended 2024-25 strong, as reflected by a large increase from September in the USDA’s November Sweetener Market Data and WASDE reports. But the forecast for 2025-26 deliveries—though up 0.9% from September—still was down 3.8% from 2024-25.