Insight Focus
Cash sugar market activity remained slow last week. The USDA cut its 2025–26 US sugar production forecast after weather hit beet and cane crops. Imports and deliveries were raised, while the stocks-to-use ratio declined.
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Cash Sugar Market Quiet as Production Forecast Falls
Activity in the cash sugar market progressed at a slow pace last week, as market participants digested recent reports from the USDA. Spot prices were unchanged, while the range of quotes for 2027 Midwest beet sugar widened to the high side.
In its March 10 WASDE report, the USDA lowered its February forecast of 2025–26 US sugar production, due mainly to the impacts of weather events on both beet and cane production.
The Department forecast 2025–26 US sugar production at 9.28 million short tons (8.42 million tonnes), raw value. The revised forecast was down 130,000 short tons from February and down 117,000 short tons from the record 9.39 million short tons in 2024–25.
Beet sugar production was forecast at 5.09 million short tons, down 9,000 short tons from February and down 277,000 short tons, or 5%, from the record 5.37 million short tons in 2024–25. Cane sugar production was forecast at 4.19 million short tons, down 121,000 short tons from February but up 160,000 short tons, or 4%, from 2024–25 and still a record high.
Source: USDA
Forecast cane sugar production was raised by 6,000 short tons in Louisiana, to 2.23 million short tons, but was lowered in Florida by 6.1% to 1.96 million short tons. Still, the revised Florida forecast was up 1.2% from the 1.93 million short tons estimated in 2024–25.
The reduction in cane sugar production in Florida was due to crop damage from an early February freeze. Lower beet sugar production was based on beet pile shrinkage.
US Sugar Imports, Deliveries, and Use Trends
The USDA raised its forecast for 2025–26 US sugar imports to 2.43 million short tons, up 184,000 short tons from February, reflecting a 134,000-ton increase in high-tier imports to 642,000 short tons. Unchanged from February were tariff rate quota imports at 1.32 million short tons and imports from Mexico at 220,000 short tons.
Source: USDA
Deliveries for food were forecast at 12.27 million short tons, up 117,000 short tons from February but down 180,000 short tons, or 1.4%, from 2024–25. Total sugar use was forecast at 12.32 million short tons, up 117,000 short tons, or about 1%, from February, which adjusted the stocks-to-use ratio to 15.2%, down from 15.9% in February.
Source: USDA
In the March 10 Sweetener Market Data report, the USDA said beet sugar deliveries for food were 391,280 short tons in January, up 8.7% from December but down 0.1% from January 2025.
Cane sugar deliveries for food were 473,170 short tons in January, down 7.5% from December, down 4.7% from January 2025, and the lowest for January since 2016–17. Beet sugar deliveries typically increase in January as processors are running full tilt. Cane sugar deliveries, however, typically decrease in January because of strong beet sugar deliveries.
Corn sweetener market activity was routine. The USDA estimated October–January high-fructose corn syrup consumption in Mexico at 500,000 tonnes, dry basis. The volume was down 1.8% from the 509,000 tonnes estimated during the same period a year
