- Ukrainian sugar exports have reached 80% of our 2018/19 estimate after just 6 months.
- We think the pace of shipments has to slow as stocks are already looking tight.
- We expect 2019/20 production to equal consumption, so there will be no surplus to export next season.
- Ukraine has exported 274k tonnes in the first 6 months of the season (Sep/Aug), 80% of our 350k tonne supply forecast for the year.
- Our 350k tonnes supply forecast means we estimate closing stocks at 70k tonnes, a 4% stock to use ratio.
- Closing stocks to use ratios of 10-15% are considered normal.
Ukrainian Stocks Assuming 350k tonnes 18/19 Exports
- Therefore, we expect the rate of shipments to slow down significantly, averaging between 10-15k tonnes a month for the second half of the season compared to nearly 50k tonnes a month in the first half.
Ukrainian Exports slowing down?
- The main destinations to date have been Uzbekistan (87k tonnes), Azerbaijan (40k tonnes), Romania (20k tonnes), Tajikistan (17k tonnes).
- However, the refineries in Uzbekistan have now restarted (click here for information on why the refineries shut down) meaning we think that whites exports to Uzbekistan will stop: in February there were minimal Ukrainian shipments to Uzbekistan.
- As we expect production in 19/20 to fall by around 300k tonnes YoY due to depressed sugar prices and high grains prices.
- In this scenario Ukraine will have no exportable surplus as production will only just cover domestic consumption.
Ukraine balanced in 19/20
