Insight Focus
- The American Climate Prediction Center has confirmed an El Niño this year.
- El Niño should not affect American cane sugar production.
- El Niño could have a negative impact on American beet sugar production.
What is El Niño?
The American Climate Prediction Center (ACPC) has officially confirmed an El Niño this year. El Niño is a weather event that occurs in periods of 2-5 years when the surface waters in the eastern Pacific become warmer. As the ocean warms the atmospheric pressure in the region decreases. These changes affect each region and country differently. The last major El Niño occurred from 2014 to 2016. Then there was a weaker one in 2018/19.
Cane Producing States
The United States produces around 9m tonnes of sugar per year. Around 4m tonnes of that production come from cane sugar. Louisiana is the largest cane sugar-producing state, followed by Florida and Texas. El Niño should not negatively affect the summer weather in Louisiana, Florida, and Texas. This is important because hurricane season runs during the summer in these states. According to a study made by Colorado State University, El Niño will most likely reduce the region’s average number of storms and hurricanes. The strong winds caused by hurricanes can be detrimental to cane development. Then after hurricane season during the winter, El Niño should bring wetter conditions to Louisiana, Florida, and Texas. The United States cane harvest season usually runs around the winter. If the rains are severe enough, they could delay the harvest, but it should not cause any material delays.
Beet Producing State
The remaining 5m tonnes of sugar comes from beet sugar. Minnesota, North Dakota, and Idaho are the largest beet-producing states Michigan, Montana, and Wyoming also produce beet in the United States.
El Niño should affect beet production on a state-by-state basis. North Dakota, Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming should receive higher than usual rain during El Nino. This El Nino induced rain should help alleviate the drought affecting the US.
But, at the same time, El Niño should bring less precipitation to Minnesota and Michigan. The dry weather in these two states should be a reason for concern. Minnesota is the largest beet-producing state in the United States, and if you add its production to Michigan’s, it accounts for a little less than the total US beet production. This means that half of the American sugar beet production is at risk of lower yields. Minnesota has had its driest seasons during El Niño seasons. To make matters worse, Michigan is currently having a poor harvest. According to the Sweetener Report by Sosland, “over half the crop rated good-to-excellent compared with 73% a year ago.” This poor harvest has been due to insufficient rain.
