Insight Focus
China’s soybean buying is more complex than assumed. State-owned firms handle US purchases to meet policy commitments, while private and multinational crushers continue sourcing mainly from Brazil. Although the 12 million tonne target is close to being met, achieving the 25 million tonne commitment is uncertain due to storage constraints, reliance on private-sector incentives and unclear measurement.
State Buyers Drive US, Private Firms Turn to Brazil
China keeps the implementation of its import policies opaque, but there are clues that state-owned companies Sinograin and COFCO are carrying out China’s commitments to purchase US soybeans, while multinationals and private firms are buying from Brazil.
The first clue was in December 2025, when Sinograin held auctions to sell imported soybeans held in its warehouses since 2022–23. According to Chinese market news reports, the auctions were meant to clear space to store US soybeans being purchased to fulfil the October 2025 purchase commitment.
Another clue is found in Chinese customs data, which indicate that state-owned companies are the only buyers of US soybeans in 2026. All 8.38 million tonnes of US soybeans imported this year were purchased by companies registered in Beijing. COFCO and Sinograin headquarters are the only Beijing-based companies that could have imported that volume of soybeans. This year’s pattern differs from last year, when there was no Beijing monopoly. During January–May 2025, Beijing companies imported 4.67 million tonnes of US soybeans, while companies registered in 20 Chinese provinces imported 9.9 million tonnes from the US.
Meanwhile, Beijing companies have not been importing Brazilian soybeans this year. China’s imports of 22.68 million tonnes of Brazilian soybeans during January–May 2026 were made by companies spread across 23 provinces, a pattern that corresponds to the layout of crushing plants concentrated along China’s east coast and inland transport networks to facilitate access to imported beans.
In summary, the Chinese customs data indicate a bifurcation of soybean imports created by the purchase agreement. State-owned stockpilers are carrying out the agreement to purchase US soybeans, while multinationals and private companies are buying Brazilian soybeans. The dispersion of importers outside Beijing probably also includes commercially oriented COFCO crushers registered as separate subsidiaries in the provinces where they operate.
Beijing Based Companies Monopolised Imports of US Soybeans During 2026
Source: China Customs
Who Is “China” in Soybean Buying?
Rumours that “China” was about to buy soybeans were validated on June 17 when USDA announced the first new-crop sales of 132,000 tonnes to China. Guesses about “China’s” buying are heating up again as the market considers the annual purchase commitment of 25 million tonnes for 2026. But who is “China” when it comes to buying soybeans?
To be sure, state-owned companies that do the government’s bidding have an outsized role in China’s soybean market, accounting for 35–40% of imports. However, over 60% of the market is composed of four profit-maximising multinationals and a half-dozen large privately owned Chinese companies jockeying for bigger shares of a hyper-competitive market.
State-owned food conglomerate China National Cereals, Oils and Foodstuffs Corporation (COFCO) and reserve stockpiler China Grain Reserves Group (Sinograin) are closest to what market analysts have in mind when they think of “China.” Chinese planners engineered a COFCO expansion to make it China’s top soy crusher over the past 15 years, and Sinograin is number three. Both companies have crushing plants and sell branded cooking oil in supermarkets. COFCO is also charged with executing national food import policies, while Sinograin stockpiles and releases soybean, grain and edible oil reserves.
The Chinese government does not directly control multinationals and private companies, but officials sometimes issue back-channel instructions. These companies often show support for government plans and initiatives to stay on friendly terms with regulators who can benefit or disrupt their businesses.
Four so-called “ABCD” companies—ADM, Bunge, Cargill and Louis Dreyfus—were long vilified in China for dominating the soybean industry, until the COFCO and Sinograin expansion diluted their dominance. Singapore-based agribusiness giant Wilmar International—partly owned by ADM—is now the number two crusher. Wilmar was the market leader until it was overtaken by COFCO. Private companies Bohi and Hopefully are also among the top crushers, each claiming to have 10 million tonnes of annual crushing capacity across multiple locations. Many companies like Zhonghai (China Sea) Grain and Oils Group were created by privatising municipal food supply bureaus.
Purchase Commitments Face Structural Constraints
The state-owned companies appear to have fulfilled the October commitment to purchase 12 million tonnes of US soybeans. The first export sales to China for the 2025/26 marketing year were announced by USDA during the week before the White House announced China’s purchase agreement. Sales climbed to 6.4 million tonnes by the end of December 2025, reached 11 million tonnes in March 2026 and were close to the 12-million-tonnes target in June.
Actual soybean shipments monitored by USDA export inspections lagged sales by about six weeks. Cumulative export inspections hit 6.4 million tonnes in mid-February 2026, reached 11 million tonnes in mid-May, and stood at 11.75 million tonnes in mid-June.
Arrivals in China monitored by Chinese customs data lag US exports by another six or more weeks. China’s purchases hit 8 million tonnes by early January 2026, but arrivals in China did not reach 8 million tonnes until four months later, in May. If this pace holds, the full 12 million tonnes of US beans will finish arriving in China by August 2026—just before the new US marketing year begins.
Sources: USDA, China Customs
The market’s attention has now turned to China’s commitment to buy 25 million tonnes of US soybeans during 2026. Some market analysts cite the fulfilment of the 12 million tonnes commitment as an indicator that “China” will carry out the new purchase commitment. Others are sceptical, pointing to the absence of a written agreement and China’s failure to meet the 2020 Phase One agreement purchase commitments.
It is unclear whether state-owned companies can stockpile another 25 million tonnes of US soybeans to meet the commitment. Records from last December’s auctions, intended to clear space for new US beans, show that only 2 million tonnes were sold, falling well short of this year’s purchases.
Chinese authorities have no mechanism to mandate that multinationals and private companies buy US soybeans. Making purchases of US beans profitable for multinationals and private firms will be critical to meeting the 25-million-tonne commitment. The narrowing of the price premium for US over Brazilian soybeans during June likely contributed to the first sale of 2026/27 beans. Elimination of China’s 10% tariff on US products will also be necessary to entice private-sector buying.
Source: International Grains Council
The possibility of confusion emerged this week. An article on a Chinese feed industry site commented that the 8.38 million tonnes of imported US soybeans reported in Chinese customs data for 2026 has already fulfilled part of the 25 million tonne purchase commitment for 2026.
US market analysts have been tracking USDA export sales to China to monitor progress, and they would consider the 8.38 million tonnes to be partial fulfilment of the 2025 commitment. This highlights the lack of a written agreement and the failure to specify whether it covers calendar years or marketing years, as well as the metric used to monitor progress.
