Insight Focus
Our estimate for global sugar production is down slightly from our last update. We think that sugar production could hit 186.1 million tonnes in 2026/27. This could be the second-highest production on record but could be limited by CS Brazil’s choice to make ethanol over sugar.
2025/26 at a Glance…
Global Sugar Production
Our estimate for global production is down by 1 million tonnes from the previous update. We now think that global sugar production will reach 185.4 million tonnes in 2025/26.
This comes after downwards revisions made to our production estimates for smaller sugar producing countries.
For 2026/27 we anticipate another year of strong sugar production at 186.1 million tonnes which would be the second highest on record. However, this figure is extremely tentative.
Mills in Centre-South Brazil, the world’s largest sugar-producing region, have made very few forward physical sugar sales for 2026. They are also extremely underhedged. This means that they retain significant flexibility to choose whether to make sugar or ethanol next year. If sugar futures prices remain under pressure, it’s possible mills in CS Brazil make more ethanol.
We have modelled an alternative scenario to our 40.7 million tonne sugar forecast for the region, one which shows 3 million tonnes less sugar production. If 2026 sugar futures prices do not rise in the coming months, we may well need to downgrade our forecast to the lower estimate. This would then reduce global sugar production for 2026/27.
Global Sugar Consumption
Our estimate for global sugar consumption has increased very minimally by 0.5 million tonnes and now stands at 178.2 million tonnes.
For 2026/27, our initial estimates show the strongest consumption growth since 2021/22 (when the world was emerging from COVID lockdowns) at 2 million tonnes. This is because sugar prices have now halved from their previous peak and we hope that this drives an increase in consumption and a re-filling of food and beverage pipeline stocks.
Counterbalancing this, we are still concerned that the emergence of GLP-1 receptor agonist drugs like Ozempic and Zepbound will undermine sugar consumption globally. In 2025 and 2026 this is likely to occur only in the world’s wealthiest countries, where many consumers can afford these drugs.
However, semaglutide (Ozempic) comes off patent in many countries in 2026. At that point, drug manufacturers will be able to release cheaper biosimilars, increasing availability. This should lead to greater uptake in other less-wealthy countries too.
Production Surplus in 2025/26
We now project a global production surplus of 7.2 million tonnes, which would still be the second-largest sugar production surplus since 2017/18.
Our projections then show a smaller surplus of 5.9 million tonnes for 26/27.
Production Update: EU+UK
We think that sugar production will hit 16.8 million tonnes in 2025/26.
Sugar prices have fallen and so have beet prices, which is negative for beet planting prospects. Numerous European beet processors have been encouraging farmers to cut beet area by up to 10-15% to reduce sugar output as stocks have grown following a better-than-expected harvest this season.
This means that while we are currently forecasting EU+UK sugar production at 15.8 million tonnes in 2026/27, if farmers do drastically cut beet acreage we could revise lower, perhaps below 15 million tonnes.
The declining EU+UK production outlook in 2026/27, combined with the risk of a lower sugar output from Brazil could have a large impact on global sugar production, and consequently our surplus projection for next year.
Other Sugar Producers at a Glance…
