Insight Focus
UNICA’s update for the first half of September came in line with our projections, with cane crushing and mix matching expectations but declining versus prior periods. The results support the view that Center-South Brazil is on track to surpass 40 million tonnes of sugar production this season.
1h’Sep: Stronger ATR and Lower Sugar Mix
UNICA’s latest update for the first half of September was released this week. Our estimates were largely in line with the reported figures:
Cane crushing and the production mix came in line with expectations in the biweekly results, but showed a decline compared to previous periods. For the upcoming updates, we project a downward trend in the mix.
In its biweekly report, UNICA highlighted that some mills are already shifting production toward a more ethanol-oriented profile, especially in Goiás and Mato Grosso.
ATR exceeded our projections by 1.37%, indicating a stronger-than-expected recovery. Meanwhile, sugar production remained in line with our estimates: 3.62 mmt reported versus 3.58 mmt projected by CZ. If this trend continues, the Center-South of Brazil should easily surpass 40 mmt of sugar production this season.
