This update is from Sosland Publishing’s Sweetener Report. For more information and subscription details, CLICK HERE.
Insight Focus
The sugar market remains bearish on weak demand and oversupply. USDA data showed sharp year-over-year declines in sugar deliveries, signalling possible further cuts to full-year forecasts. Crop conditions remained mostly favourable, with minimal supply risks despite some regional weather concerns.
Sugar Market Maintains Bearish Tone
Excess supplies and weak demand combined to maintain a bearish tone in cash and futures sugar markets during the week ending June 20.
Beet and refined cane sugar prices for this year and next remained unchanged following declines for both types of sugar in most regions over the past couple of weeks. Cane sugar offers maintained a wide premium over beet sugar amid burdensome beet sugar supplies.
Spot market sales of sugar were slow to non-existent, as users have adequate supplies—and some have excess supplies of contracted sugar due to slow sales of their own manufactured products.
Sales for 2025–26 continued at a steady but slow pace, with activity expected to pick up in late June into July. Some buyers see more downside price potential than upside, while sellers are attempting to keep prices within the current range. So far, supply risks appear minimal, given the ample sugar supplies for the current year. Summer weather forecasts are mostly benign to favourable, although dry conditions persist in some beet-growing areas and in Florida. The risk of an early frost remains uncertain. An above-normal hurricane season is forecast, but the potential impact of such storms is unknown.
Most buyers are expected to have at least partial coverage for 2025–26 by midyear, with coverage ranging from zero to 100% presently. It appears some—or many—may opt for partial coverage supplemented by spot buying next year.
Beet sugar sales are estimated to be between 50% and 60% of expected 2025–26 production, except for one processor that is well sold and raised its offer price a few weeks ago. While that sales level may be historically typical, it lags the pace of the past couple of years. Processors are expected to carry more old-crop sugar into the new year than usual due to weak demand.
USDA Data Highlights Weak Sugar Demand
Concerns over sugar demand were reflected in the USDA’s June Sweetener Market Data (SMD Report), which showed April deliveries of sugar for human consumption falling 6% from a year earlier, following a 1.8% increase in March. October–April deliveries were down 3.1% compared with the same period last year.
Including lower exports and miscellaneous use, total sugar use in April was down 8.9% from April 2024, and total use from October through April was down 4.1%. The SMD data suggested that the USDA may have room to further lower its sugar delivery forecasts in the WASDE report for the full year, beyond the 115,000 short tons already reduced over the past two months.
Source: USDA
The SMD report showed year-over-year declines in October–April deliveries for grain-based foods (the largest sugar-using sector), dairy, confectionery, wholesale/dealers, retail and government agencies.
As of June 15, good-to-excellent ratings for the sugar beet crop were mostly unchanged or higher from the previous week, except for a slight decline in Michigan. Ratings were mixed compared with a year ago.
The Louisiana sugar cane crop improved to 75% good-to-excellent as of June 15, up from 64% the previous week and the highest rating of the season.
The corn sweetener market remained quiet.
