This update is from Sosland Publishing’s Sweetener Report. For more information and subscription details, CLICK HERE.
Insight Focus
US cash sugar sales have been slow and uneven. Warm weather risks, uncertain beet content and a projected global surplus kept futures subdued while demand signals softened under tighter SNAP rules. Growing GLP-1 access and unchanged Brazilian sugar tariffs added further uncertainty as corn sweetener negotiations continued.
Activity in the cash sugar market was slow during the week ending November 21. Sales for 2025-26 were sluggish at best. The tepid pace of selling activity for 2027 had stalled. Midwest beet sugar prices were steady to lower. All other prices were unchanged.
The 2 c/lb step down on the low end of the price range for spot and 2025-26 Midwest beet sugar reflected spillover pressure from recent declines in the world sugar market, which touched five-year lows earlier this month.
Some buyers indicated even lower prices were available. The wider and lower price range kept US supplies more competitive against high-tier imports. Some processors still maintained a 48 c/lb price tag, as plenty of risk remained to be navigated in the coming months.
Warm Winter Raises Risks, Futures Stay Subdued
An early spring or an extended stretch of atypically warm winter temperatures could initiate a premature thawing process, which might deteriorate outdoor sugar beet piles and impact overall sucrose content.
Also, while most beet growers were either finished with or wrapping up harvest activities, the average total sugar content of the lifted sugar beets will not be known until a good portion of the crop has been processed. Therefore, some were uncomfortable adjusting values lower at this time.
Still, plenty of pressure lingered at the edges of the market. While No. 11 world sugar futures prices have risen above recent five-year lows, they remained at four-year lows, anchored by a recent report from the International Sugar Organization forecasting a global surplus of sugar supplies in the current (2025-26) marketing year.
The outlook for demand remained uncertain. Several states have been granted waivers to enact tighter restrictions on the use of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits to purchase “non-nutritious” items like soda and candy.
GLP-1 Access Broadens, Sugar Tariffs Remain Unchanged
Another factor that may weigh on sugar use is the expansion of GLP-1 drug access in the US.
On November 6, the Trump Administration announced an agreement with pharmaceutical manufacturers Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to adopt most-favoured-nation pricing for their GLP-1-based medications. The administration also said both companies were making large investments to expand their US manufacturing capacity.
The Trump Administration’s mid-November lifting of tariffs on several foods, ingredients and agricultural inputs did not appear to include the 50% tariff on sugar imports from Brazil.
Corn sweetener negotiations continued. Higher-than-expected corn supplies, along with questions about export demand for high-fructose corn syrup from Mexico in 2026, should work in favour of buyers waiting to complete 2026 annual contracts, although refiners continued to note higher input and labour costs. Ideas are that negotiations will run into the end of this year.
