Insight Focus
Corn consolidates as European supply concerns support prices. Chicago corn remains under pressure after the bearish October WASDE, while a record-low French crop and disrupted Black Sea exports have boosted Euronext prices. We expect corn to consolidate around USD 4.75/bushel, while wheat should remain supported until there is greater clarity on Black Sea export flows.
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Corn falls again in Chicago but rallies on Euronext. French production downgraded again. Black Sea exports remain disrupted.
Chicago corn consolidated last week’s losses following the publication of the October WASDE and traded even lower. The picture is simply different now, with higher old-crop stocks and a higher yield projected for the new crop in the October WASDE two weeks ago. We have moved from a projected 2026/27 stock-to-use ratio of 9.7%, which justified a USD 5.00-5.50/bushel market, to an 11.3% stock-to-use ratio, which points to a sub-USD 5/bushel market.
Source: USDA
We expect further consolidation around the USD 4.75/bushel level, and next week we should see a pickup in planting pace, which is likely to be slightly bearish and could pressure the market lower. However, a USD 4.50-4.75/bushel market is justified in our opinion. Wheat should remain strong until there is clarity around a safe corridor for exports out of the Black Sea.
We are reducing our estimate for the 2026/27 average corn price in Chicago to USD 4.75/bushel, down from USD 5.50/bushel previously. This downward revision is due to the higher US production estimate published in the October WASDE. The average price since September 1 has been running at USD 5.10/bushel.
Record-Low French Corn Crop Boosts Euronext Prices
Corn in Chicago opened positively last Monday, recovering slightly from the heavy losses of the previous Friday following the very bearish October WASDE. Better corn conditions pressured the market lower on Tuesday. On Thursday, the market moved lower again, this time following soybeans and wheat.
The surprise came from Europe, with FranceAgriMer again reducing its corn production forecast to just 7.3 million tonnes, down from 8.1 million tonnes in its September forecast. This is the lowest production on record since the Ministry of Agriculture began tracking crop size in 1980. While a downward revision was expected, the surprise came from the size of the reduction, which triggered a rally in Euronext corn, with prices rising 7% during the week.
In the Black Sea region, Ukrainian grain exports during the first week of October via rail to Danube ports plummeted by 65.7% compared with the first week of September, which also pushed Euronext wheat higher early last week.
US corn is 33% harvested versus the five-year average of 39%, and crop conditions are rated 56% good or excellent, up two percentage points week-on-week. French corn is 92% harvested versus 53% last year and the five-year average of 46%, while crop conditions remain at 22% good or excellent, unchanged week on week. Corn harvesting in Ukraine is 12.9% complete, while Russia is 21.1% complete.
Safrinha corn is now fully harvested in Brazil, and summer corn planting has reached 33.5%, compared with 31.2% last year and the five-year average of 31%.
Algerian Demand and Export Disruption Lift Wheat
Wheat opened last week strongly on Euronext, supported not only by disruptions to Ukrainian exports but also by Algeria returning to the market with a new tender.
Conab in Brazil reduced its wheat production forecast to 5.73 million tonnes, well below the 7.9 million tonnes harvested in 2025.
US spring wheat is now fully harvested. US winter wheat is 51% planted versus the five-year average of 58%. Winter wheat planting in Ukraine is 67.2% complete compared with 59.1% last year. Winter wheat planting in France is 15% complete versus 24% last year and the five-year average of 21%. Wheat harvesting in Brazil is 40.3% complete, compared with 35.1% last year and the five-year average of 38.8%.
On the weather front, Brazil is expected to remain rainy this week, as is Argentina. The US is expected to experience normal temperatures and dry weather, which should boost both corn harvesting and winter wheat planting. Rain and colder weather are expected in northwestern Europe, as well as across the Black Sea region.
