Insight Focus
Chicago grains slipped while Euronext ended the week unchanged. France’s corn production is set to hit a 50-year low, and Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports for July-September are projected at their lowest level since 2010/11. As Northern Hemisphere corn harvesting accelerates, we still see downside risk to US yields and maintain a justified Chicago corn range of USD 5.00-5.55/bushel, while any breakthrough on a safe Black Sea export corridor would be bearish for wheat.
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It was a mixed week in grains: negative in Chicago but unchanged on the Euronext. France’s corn production is forecast to be the lowest in 50 years. Black Sea wheat exports are down 50%.
The corn harvesting season is now underway in the Northern Hemisphere, and although the main focus is European corn, we think we could still see a downside surprise in US yields. Based on the data we have today, we continue to see a USD 5.00-5.55/bushel range as justified for Chicago corn. Wheat exports out of the Black Sea are the other focus of the market, and any success in securing a safe corridor should be bearish for wheat.
There are no changes to our estimate for the 2025/26 average price of corn in Chicago at USD 5.5/bushel. The average price since September 1 is running at USD 5.19/bushel.
Corn Faces Diverging Supply Signals Across Key Producers
Corn in Chicago opened positive last Monday and continued higher on Tuesday despite improving US corn conditions and wheat opening on the defensive. Both factors weighed on the market, and the second half of the week turned negative, finally closing slightly lower.
The bearishness in wheat came from Trump first saying that Ukraine and Russia had agreed not to strike energy targets. Ukraine’s Zelensky said his forces would suspend their strikes on Russian energy targets, but Russia’s Putin did not say a word. Turkey also continued its efforts and on Thursday proposed a truce that would halt attacks on civilian vessels.
In France, the agriculture ministry forecast corn production at 8.1 million tonnes, down 41.8% year on year and down 40.7% versus the five-year average. This would be the lowest production since 1970.
Conab in Brazil increased its 2025/26 corn production forecast to 144 million tonnes, up 2.2 million tonnes versus its previous forecast. It also projected the new 2026/27 corn crop at 147.9 million tonnes, up on higher plantings.
US corn is 8% harvested, ahead of last year’s 7% and the five-year average of 6%. Crop condition is 57% good or excellent, up one point week on week but still below last year’s 67%. French corn is 27% harvested, well ahead of both last year and the five-year average at 5%, while crop condition is 23% good or excellent, down three points week-on-week and sharply below last year’s 62%.
Corn harvesting in Ukraine is 1% complete and 1.3% complete in Russia. Safrinha corn harvesting in Brazil is 98.1% complete, slightly below last year’s 99.1% but above the five-year average of 97.9%, while summer corn planting has reached 17.6%, ahead of both last year’s 14.7% and the five-year average of 14.4%.
Black Sea Disruption Cuts Wheat Exports in Half
On the wheat side, and on top of the uncertainty surrounding the Black Sea grain corridor explained above, nothing was ultimately agreed. The result of the disruption is that combined Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports for the July-September period will be around 8 million tonnes, according to SovEcon, the lowest since the 2010/11 season, versus 16.2 million tonnes exported last year and the five-year average of 18.2 million tonnes.
In France, the agriculture ministry forecast wheat production at 31.7 million tonnes, slightly down from the 31.9 million tonnes projected in August and down from the 33.4 million tonnes produced last year.
Statistics Canada projected the 2026/27 wheat crop at 36.1 million tonnes, down 11% year on year.
US spring wheat is 93% harvested, in line with last year and slightly ahead of the five-year average of 92%. US winter wheat planting has reached 8%, below last year’s 10% and the five-year average of 12%. Wheat harvesting in Ukraine is complete, while winter wheat planting is 3.2% complete. Wheat harvesting in Russia is 90.7% complete. Wheat harvesting in Brazil has reached 18%, ahead of last year’s 13.8% and above the five-year average of 16.5%.
Europe will be split between a warm northwest and a cool southeast next week. In the US Corn Belt, regular rains and thunderstorms are expected this week. Brazil is expected to turn dry after three weeks of rain.
