Insight Focus
Chinese New Year again disrupted global shipping markets. Shippers are heavily front-loading cargo ahead of CNY 2026, driving unusually large pre-holiday capacity increases across Asia–Europe and Asia–Mediterranean trades. As the cargo rush fades, capacity growth is outpacing demand, shifting market power to shippers and pressuring spot rates lower.
Chinese New Year (CNY), which this year falls on February 17, is not only the most important and ceremonial holiday in Chinese culture but also a long-standing disruptor of the global shipping and transportation industry.
The shutdown of Chinese factories and the reduced operations of critical Chinese shipping infrastructure create significant challenges for global markets.
Let’s dive into the first signals of this year, including the capacity and rate trends that have begun to take shape in the weeks ahead of CNY 2026.
Source: Drewry
Shippers’ “Front-Loading” Strategy Could Limit Potential Impact
According to a Sea-Intelligence analysis, current data indicate that shippers have adopted a “front-loading” approach on the Asia–North Europe trade, which could help mitigate the impact of extended transit times.
Source: Sea Intelligence
The graph highlights the magnitude of this shift. From 2015 to 2019, the pre-CNY capacity ramp-up on the Asia–North Europe route was relatively moderate, with capacity increasing by approximately 10% from the baseline to the peak.
In contrast, projections for this year show a surge in intensity that effectively quadruples historical levels. Specifically, from a 2026 baseline of 282,947 TEU, deployed capacity rises to a peak of 421,825 TEU by Week -6 (six weeks before CNY), representing a net injection of 138,878 TEU, or a 49% increase above the baseline.
“Even when adjusting for potential vessel delays, the capacity index remains significantly elevated above index 130 through Week -4,” Sea-Intelligence analysts noted, describing the situation as a “structural adaptation to current network dynamics.”
With extended transit times around Africa, shippers are pushing substantial volumes into the European network much earlier than usual — peaking six weeks before the holiday — to ensure inventory buffers are in place ahead of the post-CNY capacity withdrawal. Facing an already challenging and volatile shipping environment, shippers appear more proactive than ever, advancing volumes significantly earlier than in previous years.
This front-loading strategy is mirrored in the Asia–Mediterranean trade, which shows the highest relative growth of all trade lanes, surging an impressive 62% in just five weeks to reach a peak of 278,172 TEU.
The Transpacific trades, however, display markedly different volatility profiles, according to Sea-Intelligence. “While the Asia–North America West Coast trade is characterised by extreme instability and a risky late-season spike, the Asia–North America East Coast trade maintains a sustained high-capacity floor, holding volumes 25% above the baseline right up to the start of CNY,” outlined Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence.
Market Favours Shippers with Rates Softening Further
According to Xeneta, the pre–Lunar New Year cargo rush has largely passed. As a result, market dynamics are increasingly shifting in favour of shippers rather than ocean carriers, with further downward pressure on freight rates.
Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta, notes that container carriers ramped up capacity in January to capitalise on traditionally stronger demand at the start of the year across the main trade lanes out of the Far East. However, capacity growth has outpaced demand, inevitably exerting downward pressure on spot rates. On January 1, average spot rates on the Far East–US West Coast trade surged by 30%. Since then, offered capacity has increased by 6%, while spot rates have fallen by 18%.
A similar pattern is evident across other Far East fronthaul trades. Average spot rates have declined by 15% into the US East Coast, 5% into North Europe and 11% into the Mediterranean since January 1.
Source: Xeneta Shipping Index
“It looks like the pre-Lunar New Year cargo rush is behind us, so the market is set to turn further in favour of shippers rather than carriers, with further softening of freight rates,” commented Peter Sand.
Below are some interesting Xeneta data points on daily spot rates and weekly capacity trends across major trade lanes through the end of January.
Source: Xeneta
