Insight Focus
Vessels remain trapped while Hormuz operates at just 5% capacity. Ongoing conflict has turned the strait into a restricted grey zone, stranding thousands of seafarers, sharply reducing traffic, and forcing shipping lines to reroute cargo. New pay-to-pass rules, rising congestion at alternative hubs and widespread “dark” navigation are reshaping global trade flows, with disruptions now expected to persist into 2027.
As of mid-May 2026, the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical maritime arteries, remains in a state of heightened volatility. While historically it was, and remains, a primary waterway for oil and LNG, the current crisis has also triggered a structural rerouting of global container shipping operations.
Due to the continuing war between the US, Israel and Iran, the Strait of Hormuz has become another grey zone for global shipping companies, following the Suez Canal and the Red Sea, which have been largely abandoned due to Houthi terrorism.
US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine confirmed in early May that 22,500 mariners are trapped on more than 1,550 commercial vessels in and around the Strait of Hormuz.
Additionally, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) reported that 20,000 seafarers aboard 800–1,000 ships, as well as port workers and offshore crew members, have been impacted by the ongoing situation in the Strait.
During a Security Council session on maritime safety, the UN Secretary General António Guterres emphasised the urgent need for uninterrupted shipping flows, noting that disruptions have already had immediate global economic impacts.
Strait Traffic Collapse Leaves 42 Vessels Trapped
Apart from the fact that traffic through Hormuz has run at approximately 5% of its pre-war average throughout April, the most visible impact of the current crisis is the literal entrapment of global trade.
According to recent data from Kpler, of the 53 container vessels from the world’s 10 largest ocean carriers initially caught inside the Persian Gulf when the conflict escalated in early March, 42 remain trapped, with only nine successfully exiting on their first attempt.
Two boxships required a second attempt to pass through the strait. Both vessels were operated by China’s shipping giant COSCO, making it the only liner operator to achieve a successful breakout on a second attempt.
MSC has been involved in the most complex situation. Of the initial 14 vessels in the zone, four managed to exit on their first attempt, eight remain trapped and two were seized by Iranian authorities—a development that has drawn attention from maritime insurers and legal teams globally.
Rerouting and Alternative Hubs
The effective closure of the strait to reliable commercial traffic has forced a massive redistribution of cargo, with several neighbouring hubs in the wider region experiencing sudden traffic increases on a scale that is pushing them toward congestion levels.
Transshipment Hubs
Ports like Salalah in Oman and Khor Fakkan in the UAE are operating far above historical baselines, struggling with severe congestion as they attempt to absorb diverted Gulf traffic. Another port in Oman, Sohar, as well as the established container hub of Jeddah in Saudi Arabia, are also among the “winners” in terms of container traffic. Additional ports across the Indian Ocean that can operate as alternative transshipment hubs are also receiving diverted container volumes.
The Pakistan Corridor
To bypass the maritime bottleneck, Pakistan opened six overland transit routes for Iran-bound cargo in late April. The order enables goods from third countries to be transported overland through Pakistan into Iran, though it does not include goods originating from India.
Over 3,000 containers have been held at the Port of Karachi, the major container hub in Pakistan, for several weeks due to the ongoing situation in the Strait of Hormuz, making the backlog an increasingly urgent issue.
Rise of the “Toll Booth” and “Dark” Transits
As of mid-May 2026, the tactical landscape has shifted from a physical blockade to a sophisticated “bureaucratic blockade”.
The establishment of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) on May 5 has formalised a “pay-to-pass” regime. Under this system, vessels must submit a declaration answering more than 40 questions—covering crew nationalities, vessel ownership and cargo details—and pay tolls reportedly as high as USD 2 million per transit. According to reports, these fees are often settled in Chinese yuan or cryptocurrency to circumvent Western banks.
For Western carriers, this creates a “compliance trap.” With the US Treasury warning that any such payments trigger immediate sanctions, companies like MSC, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk are legally barred from paying the very fees that might grant them passage.
In contrast, more than half of the vessels that have successfully transited since March are operated by a handful of countries, most notably China. Reports suggest that Beijing has successfully leveraged diplomatic ties to secure “safe passage” for the majority of Chinese-flagged or operated vessels, creating a stark competitive imbalance.
Consequently, “dark” transits have become the only alternative for non-Chinese carriers. An estimated 90% of non-Chinese vessels in the High-Risk Zone are now operating with Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders deactivated. However, this “dark sailing” is increasingly perilous. Widespread GPS jamming and “spoofing” across the Gulf of Oman have rendered digital charts unreliable, forcing crews to return to manual navigation.
Source: Kpler
In addition, with the UK Navy deploying its warship HMS Dragon and France moving a carrier strike group to the Middle East, the Strait has become one of the most monitored and militarised stretches of water on earth. In this “electronic fog,” the tactic of going dark offers little protection against state-actor surveillance while significantly increasing the risk of collision in one of the world’s most congested channels.
Chokepoint Crisis Set to Continue in 2027
For the container shipping industry, the Strait of Hormuz has become another highly dangerous zone. The current situation is no longer a temporary disruption but a fundamental reshaping of how goods enter and exit the Middle East.
As long as the war continues and the region continues to accumulate warships and frigates from powers worldwide, the global economy must brace for sustained inflation in shipping costs and continued reliance on expensive terrestrial alternatives.
Industry consensus from DHL and other logistics leaders suggests that even under the most optimistic diplomatic scenario—including the ongoing de-escalation talks—normalcy is at least four to six months away. According to shipping experts, the backlog of more than 1,550 vessels currently stranded or waiting in the region will take most of 2027 to fully clear.
