Insight Focus
China has stopped buying US soybeans cold turkey. But will the US be able to find other pockets of demand, or will soybean prices freefall without Chinese purchases? Similarly, as China’s appetite for Brazilian soybeans ramps up, there could be room for upward movement.
Gains in US Sales Spread Across Multiple Countries
One side of the China-US-Brazil soybean trade triangle is being squashed as the trade war shuts down US-China trade in 2025. As of early October 2025, the US has made no soybean sales to China with this year’s crop about 40% harvested. With US-China trade zeroed out the soybean trade triangle is shapeshifting into a Brazil-China pipeline as Chinese buyers push their purchases of Brazilian soybeans into the fall months when they typically turn to US beans.
While it is impossible to fully replace lost sales to China, there may be new opportunities for low-priced US soybeans to make inroads in other foreign markets.
This article looks at the latest soybean trade data to gain insight about the reshuffle of soybean trade underway this fall. But the main conclusion from this analysis is already known: China is such a dominant buyer of soybeans that the US cannot replace its lost sales to China with sales to other countries.
Still, at the margins some US soybeans will be sold at bargain prices to backfill Brazilian beans diverted to Chinese buyers scrambling to cover their needs this fall.
Source: USDA
Export inspections for September—the first month of the US market year and relatively small in volume—indicate gains in sales for US beans will be spread over a number of diverse customers. Egypt, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Japan all appear to have had gains in September sales versus a year ago.
Sales to Mexico and Indonesia were relatively steady from last year. Sales to Italy were up, but US sales to other EU countries in September were disappointing.
Two Dominant Exporters, One Dominant Importer
USDA’s September WASDE report estimated Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean exports at 112 million tonnes and US exports at 45.86 million tonnes. The two countries together account for 84% of the world’s soybean exports. WASDE pegged China’s 2025/26 imports at 112 million tonnes (which happens to equal Brazil’s projected exports) — 60% of world imports.
Source: USDA
A total of 22.6 million tonnes of US soybeans were exported to China during the just-completed market year (September 2024–August 2025), about 45% of all US soybean exports.
Sales to China have a pronounced seasonal pattern with peak months in October-November, immediately after harvest. US shipments then taper off during January–March as southern hemisphere supplies become available. This year exports to China were down more than 50% year-over-year in January-February and dropped to zero in every month since June.
Note: marketing year for US soybeans is September – August.
Source: USDA
Gains in Some Markets Offset Part of Lost Sales to China
USDA export inspections for September 2025 are an early indicator of the extent to which US soybeans are finding markets to replace some of the lost Chinese sales in the first month of the 2025/26 market year. The new US marketing year kicked off in September with 2.38 million tonnes of soybeans inspected for export. That was 730,900 tonnes less than the volume exported in September 2024.
The September-to-September comparison suggests that gains in export sales were made to 19 countries that totalled more than 1.2 million tonnes. The leading countries in sales gains were Egypt (up nearly 280,000 tonnes from last September), Pakistan, Turkey, Italy, Japan, Bangladesh, the UK, Taiwan, Iraq and Algeria. Mexico—the second-largest US customer after China—had a marginal gain of nearly 25,000 tonnes.
Source: USDA
On the other side of the ledger, the September inspections indicated 400,000 tonnes in reduced sales to 12 countries (besides China) versus a year ago. Most of the declines were less than 10,000 tonnes, but it is notable that three European Union countries—Germany, Portugal and the Netherlands—accounted for most of the decreases.
Source: USDA
How is Brazil Filling the China Pipeline?
During calendar year 2025 Brazil had shipped an estimated 72.4 million tonnes of soybeans to China through September, up about 7 million tonnes from the same period last year.
This year, 76% of Brazil’s soybean exports have gone to China, up from 73% last year. Brazil’s exports to China spiked at 11 million tonnes in March—a record for that month—and remained above 10 million tonnes monthly during April-June.
Note: September 2025 is estimated
Source: UN Comtrade
Most of the year-on-year growth in Brazil’s exports to China occurred in August and September, months when seasonal supplies usually diminish. This year’s seasonal decline was slower than usual as Chinese buyers purchased Brazilian beans aggressively to fill their needs during the fall months to cover their expected shortfall in US beans. Brazilian shipments in August and September this year were up a combined 4 million tonnes from the same period last year.
The volume of monthly Brazilian sales to China is shrinking seasonally—from 9–11 million tonnes during March–July to 7.9 million tonnes in August and 6.5 million tonnes in September. As Brazilian beans from this year’s crop harvested during January–March become more scarce, economic logic suggests that prices for China-bound beans will rise to bid them away from Brazilian uses and from other export markets.
Source: Cepea
Were Brazilian sales diverted from other markets to fill China’s surge in demand for non-US soybeans during August? A comparison of Brazil’s August 2025 and August 2024 soybean exports (detailed September data are not yet available) shows that Brazil’s August exports were up 1.3 million tonnes from a year earlier, less than its 2-million tonnes year-over-year increase in exports to China.
Brazil had year-on-year declines in exports to 18 countries that totalled 1.13 million tonnes. The biggest YoY declines in Brazilian sales were for Spain, Bangladesh, Iran and Russia, each of which were down by more than 100,000 tonnes from a year ago.
Others with decreases of more than 50,000 metric tons included “other Asia,” Algeria, South Korea, Türkiye, Egypt and Italy. Brazil also recorded YoY increases in soybean sales to eight countries, most prominently to Pakistan and Thailand.
Source: UN Comtrade
The comparison of Brazil’s year over year declines in soybean exports with the US gains indicates only a slight correspondence. Bangladesh had a decline in Brazilian sales and gained US sales, as did Egypt, Türkiye and Algeria.
On the other hand, Brazilian sales to Spain dropped more than 200,000 tonnes while US sales to Spain were relatively steady. The drop in Brazilian sales to Iran and Russia may have reflected political/economic events—neither of those countries are a market for US soybeans. Sales of beans to Mexico by both the US and Brazil were relatively steady year over year.
