Insight Focus
The US government lifted tariffs on key agricultural exports. The move provided exemptions for over 200 products, benefiting top suppliers, while recent Chinese soybean purchases pushed US prices higher. Meanwhile, Ukraine-Russia peace talks pressured oil markets, and severe monsoon floods disrupted agriculture and logistics across Southeast Asia.
US Lifts Tariffs on Key Agricultural Exports
The Trump administration began unwinding parts of its agricultural tariff policy on November 14, announcing that more than 200 food and agricultural products were removed from the 10% baseline tariff introduced in April.
The exemptions cover a wide range of staples — including beef, coffee, tea, cocoa, fruit juices, bananas, tropical fruit, tomatoes and several spices — many of which the US either does not produce at all or cannot supply in sufficient quantities.
Source: Whitehouse.gov
According to the White House, the exemptions reflect “progress” in multiple trade negotiations across Latin America, Southeast Asia and Europe, and are also intended to ease grocery price pressures that food manufacturers say were exacerbated by tariff-driven import costs.
Major exporters responded quickly. Australia secured relief on beef — one of its largest US-bound exports — at a time when US cattle inventories remain historically low. South Africa’s citrus sector welcomed the decision to exempt oranges from import tariffs, a move expected to restore competitiveness and boost exports from the 2026 season onward, though duties on mandarins will continue to constrain growth.
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
A second rollback followed on November 20, this time aimed specifically at Brazil. The White House rescinded the additional 40% punitive tariff imposed earlier in the year on hundreds of Brazilian agribusiness products.
The move was celebrated in Brazil as “significant progress,” particularly for coffee and beef, which are top exports to the US and had seen margins sharply eroded under the surcharge. However, Brazilian coffee exporters expect it will take at least six months to make up for the 1 million bags withheld during the tariff period due to logistics limits. With the tariff now lifted, Brazil regains broad market access at a strategically important moment.
Source: Comex
China Buying Spurs US Soybean Rally
China has booked nearly 1.6 million tonnes of US soybeans over three days, marking the largest such purchase in more than two years. The USDA reported sales to China of 1.584 million tonnes last week, the largest weekly volume since November 2023, though further purchases would need to accelerate to reach the target. These transactions do not represent a formal commitment by China nor confirm that the soybeans have been shipped or delivered.
The surge in demand pushed US soybean prices sharply higher, creating a premium over Brazilian supplies. While the rally temporarily supported US export sentiment, it also reduced competitiveness for other importers and raised questions about whether China will continue buying at this pace.
For US farmers, the price spike triggered a wave of selling, especially among those who had held back inventory hoping for a late-season rally. At the same time, reports indicate that Chinese traders liquidated soybean futures positions, suggesting a cautious approach amid rising prices and shifting procurement costs.
Analysts remain wary about the broader outlook. US officials have cited a 12-million-tonne target for Chinese purchases by year-end, but China has not confirmed such a commitment, and market participants are sceptical that the recent buying spree signals a sustained shift in procurement strategy. Combined with the US price premium, this makes the trajectory for further sales uncertain.
Ukraine Peace Talks Pressure Oil Markets
Ukrainian and Russian officials, with US facilitation, are advancing a “fine-tuned” peace framework aimed at ending the war in Ukraine. President Donald Trump said his special envoy, Steve Witkoff, will meet with Russian and Ukrainian leaders in Moscow and Kyiv to resolve remaining points of disagreement, while Kyiv has expressed support for the “essence” of the deal.
According to Reuters, “if finalised, the deal could rapidly dismantle Western sanctions on Russian energy exports. For now, the market waits for more clarity, but the risk appears to be for lower prices unless talks falter.”
Oil prices fell 89 cents on Tuesday, following Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s announcement to European leaders that he is prepared to advance a US-backed plan to end the war in Ukraine, before rebounding slightly on Wednesday, with Brent crude climbing to about USD 62.75/barrel and WTI to roughly USD 58.20/barrel.
Analysts note that while the peace plan could ease supply constraints in the medium term, markets remain cautious, with lower prices already factored in, and no guarantee that the negotiations will lead to a lasting peace.
Monsoon Floods Hit Southeast Asia
Severe monsoon rains have triggered widespread flooding and landslides across Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia, resulting in significant loss of life and the displacement of tens of thousands. With further downpours expected, saturated ground conditions are heightening the risk of continued disruption across major population and production areas.
Agricultural losses are mounting sharply. In Vietnam alone, more than 80,000 hectares of rice and other crops have been destroyed, 3.3 million livestock and poultry lost, and extensive farmland—including key coffee-producing areas in Dak Lak—submerged. Southern Thailand’s major rubber and palm oil regions are heavily inundated, delaying harvesting and restricting access to plantations.
Logistics networks are also under strain. Flooding has blocked major roads, compromised bridges, and slowed operations at airports and transit hubs—including Hat Yai, a key commercial and transport gateway for southern Thailand. Power outages and damaged rural infrastructure in Vietnam are interrupting processing and storage activities, while cross-border trucking between Thailand and Malaysia faces intermittent closures. With heavier-than-average rainfall forecast to persist, regional transport reliability and agricultural output will remain vulnerable in the coming weeks.
CMA CGM Restarts Restricted Food Shipments to Russia
CMA CGM has resumed a narrow set of food-related shipments to Russia, a move first reported by Le Marin in October and now confirmed by the company. Through its subsidiary CNC, the carrier has restarted limited deliveries of products such as citrus fruit and coffee, stressing that the activity remains tightly restricted and fully compliant with the current sanctions regime. CMA CGM is not deploying its own vessels for these routes — instead booking container space on ships operated by other lines.
The development brings the French group closer to rival MSC, which has continued serving Russian ports throughout the war but only for food, medical and humanitarian cargo. CMA CGM’s carefully bounded re-entry—after withdrawing from the Russian market in 2022—highlights the sector’s ongoing effort to balance commercial demand with sanctions requirements, while avoiding a full restoration of pre-war trade links.
In Other News:
- COP30 Deal Falls Short: COP30 concluded with a compromise boosting climate finance for vulnerable nations and raising nearly USD 10 billion for forest protection, but avoided any reference to fossil fuels. Critics warned the agreement falls short of the action science demands, despite progress on funding and support for Indigenous communities.
- APM Expands Peru’s Callao Port: Dutch operator APM Terminals will invest USD 550 million to expand Callao port over two years, increasing capacity to 24,000 containers and supporting direct shipping from China and South Korea. The move aims to strengthen trade with Asia and position Callao as a key Pacific hub for imports, with initial shipments already fully booked for the next six weeks.
Callao Port, Peru
- Indonesia Faces Palm Plantation Unrest: Thousands in Riau protested the government’s seizure of about 37 million hectares of palm oil plantations transferred to state-run Agrinas, saying it threatens land they’ve cultivated for decades, while officials argue the move enforces existing laws and curbs illegal operations, prompting heavy police deployment and concerns over livelihoods.
Palm oil plantation, Indonesia
- When Will Carriers Return to the Red Sea? Supal Shah, CEO of Sarjak Container Lines, says reports of reduced attacks are encouraging but still insufficient to ensure lasting stability in the Red Sea, noting that operators will only return once security is consistently proven. A rapid resumption is possible if incidents drop off suddenly—though this risks rate shocks and operational strain—while a slower reopening with falling war-risk premiums is viewed as the more realistic route, with timing hinging on sustained, verifiable improvements in safety across the shipping lane.
