• Mexico should produce 4m tonnes of orange this season, up 40% year-on-year.
  • The country has received plenty of rain following last season’s drought.
  • Consumption is also showing signs of recovery as COVID restrictions start to ease.

Orange Production Rebounds Following Drought

  • Mexico should produce 4m tonnes of fresh orange in 2020/21, up 40% year-on-year.
  • The country’s received plenty of rainfall following last season’s drought.
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  • We initially thought we’d see a larger rebound, but COVID weakened producer cash flow and they spent meant less on fertiliser, pesticides, etc.
  • Also, many of Mexico’s orchards aren’t irrigated, so land recovery has been slower for some of the smaller producers.
  • Yields should average 13.3mt/ha but this will vary on a regional basis due to different weather patterns, fertiliser application rates, tree density and soil health.
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  • With strong production on the cards, Mexico should produce 200k tonnes of FCOJ in 2021, up 122% year-on-year.
  • However, demand for fresh juice is increasing, meaning many producers are keen expand their production there.
  • The process itself isn’t too difficult, but delivery can be challenging as fresh juice requires sophisticated and expensive refrigeration equipment for storage and transport.
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Consumption Improves Alongside Production

  • Mexico should consume 1.97m tonnes of orange in 2020/21.
  • This is a 23% increase year-on-year yet below average as COVID-19 has weakened demand.
  • Mexico’s hospitality industry has suffered throughout the pandemic, meaning out-of-home orange consumption is still lower than usual.

The US Remains to the Dominant Buyer

  • Although domestic demand is still recovering, Mexico should export 61k tonnes of orange in 2020/21.
  • Most of this should go to the US.
  • The freight is cheaper and, since 2008, Mexico’s not had to pay any duty due to the North American Free Trade Agreement and now the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
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  • Between 2008-19, Brazil paid $548 million in tax, whilst Mexico paid none of the $405 million it would have otherwise owed.
  • Some could also go to the EU via the Mexico-EU free trade agreement (15% duty), but the US is the preference for most.
  • As for imports, we think Mexico will take 30k tonnes of duty-free orange from the US to make up for shortages in the disease-hit border region.

Citrus Greening is Still Causing Problems

  • Citrus greening is still an issue in Mexico.
  • This disease is spread by psyllids, which feed on the stems and leaves of orange trees, infecting them with the bacteria that causes the greening.
  • This greening impairs the trees’ ability to take in nourishment and ultimately results fewer, smaller fruits.
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