Insight Focus
Brazil’s soybean crop is drawing global attention in 2026. Strong production, favourable weather, and rising exports support record output while keeping domestic prices stable. The competitiveness of Brazilian soybeans is shaping global markets and influencing US planting decisions for 2026/27.
Brazil’s Soybean Crop in Focus as Global Output Falls
The size of Brazil’s new soybean crop is a focus of attention in the world market in the early months of 2026. Brazil has been the chief source of growth in world soybean supplies over the past decade, and with another record crop expected, it will reprise that role this year.
Soybean Harvest, Matto Grosso
Brazil increased its soybean output by 76 million tonnes between 2015/16 and 2024/25. USDA’s January WASDE raised its estimate of the 2025/26 crop to 178 million tonnes from its previous estimate of 175 million tonnes. Estimates made by Brazilian organisations are even more optimistic.
During January, Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) projected the crop at 176.124 million tonnes; SAFRAS Mercado projected 179.3 million tonnes; and Agroconsult projected 182.2 million tonnes. These estimates would represent an increase in Brazil’s soybean output over the previous year’s crop ranging from 6.5 to 10.7 million tonnes. In contrast, output in the US and Argentina is down in the 2025/26 marketing year.
Source: USDA
USDA estimated world soybean production at 425.68 million tonnes in 2025/26, down 1.47 million tonnes from the previous year. Brazil’s 6.5 million tonne increase in 2025/26 stands out as the largest among all countries. Only three other countries will increase output, led by Russia’s increase of less than 2 million tonnes.
US output is down 3 million tonnes, Argentina’s is down 2.6 million tonnes, and output will also fall in India, Ukraine and Uruguay. The International Grains Council also forecasts a 2 million tonne decrease in world soybean output and a record crop in Brazil.
Source: USDA
Expansion Supported by Stable Domestic Prices
Growth in Brazilian output reflects expanded acreage as well as rising yields. Weather has been favourable in most parts of the country, and good yields were reported from the first areas harvested in January.
Growth in Brazil’s soybean production is driven by soybean exports to China, soybean meal exports to other countries, and aggressive expansion of Brazil’s own crushing capacity. In its domestic market, Brazil has vigorous demand for high-protein feed, and a B15 biodiesel blend mandate was implemented in August 2025 as part of a decarbonisation initiative.
With large soybean supplies during calendar year 2025, Brazil was able to boost exports to record levels and maintain domestic consumption with relatively stable prices. Producer prices reported by Conab during the first half of 2025 were higher than year-earlier levels in 2024 and lower than prices in 2023.
Prices in the second half of 2025 saw a less-pronounced seasonal surge than in previous years. Wholesale prices showed a broadly similar pattern: relatively little fluctuation in Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul, and a moderate increase during July–August in Mato Grosso do Sul.
Source: Conab
Source: Conab
Mid-January market commentary by Conab reported that domestic Brazilian prices were relatively stable as the number of sales entered their seasonal lull. The average producer price in Mato Grosso and Paraná States reported by Conab dipped slightly in December.
Brazilian Soybeans Gain Export Edge Ahead of US Planting
The prospect of a large Brazilian harvest kept downward pressure on global soybean prices. The FOB price at Brazil’s Paranaguá fell below US Gulf prices in late December and fell even further in January 2026.
A rebound in CBOT futures prices in January was stimulated by news that China had apparently met its 12-million-tonne US soybean purchase commitment, improved prospects for warming US–China trade relations, and US biodiesel blending quotas that may be approved in March 2026. However, the prospect of another surge in Brazilian soybean exports in coming months prevented a stronger rally in CBOT prices.
The widening spread between US and Brazilian FOB prices during January 2026 may also restrain US export prospects. Brazilian exports for January 2026 were at seasonal lows but still more than three times their year-earlier volume.
A surge in US export sales and shipments during December and January reflected purchases by Chinese state-owned companies to meet the 12 million tonne purchase commitment. Given the price competitiveness of Brazilian soybeans, the surge in US sales may fade.
As the Northern Hemisphere spring approaches, attention will turn to US farmers’ planting intentions. US farmers may plant a surprising amount of soybean acreage in view of weakness in prices of other field crops that are alternatives for many soybean producers. In particular, the USDA’s January WASDE confirmed a very large 2025/26 US corn crop that put downward pressure on corn prices.
Source: USDA
Erosion of the corn-to-soybean price ratio may encourage US farmers to keep planting soybeans this year despite competition from Brazil and China’s tariffs on US beans. That could result in a surprisingly large US 2026/27 crop and continued supply pressure.
