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Insight Focus
Corn slips while wheat rises on weather, supply worries. The USDA projects lower corn and wheat acreage for 26/27, but its outlook forum was largely neutral given ample short-term grain availability. Weather remains the only supportive factor—affecting winter wheat or pre-planting corn—likely keeping prices supported but capped, with Chicago corn expected in a USD 4.30–4.50/bushel range through Q1.
It was a negative week for corn in Chicago, but wheat rallied on weather concerns and Black Sea supply worries, although fears of winterkill in Russia have dissipated. The USDA projects lower corn and wheat acreage in 26/27.
The USDA Outlook Forum was neutral for the market, even though it projected lower corn and wheat production in 26/27. In the short term, grain availability remains ample, which makes it difficult to justify higher prices.
Only weather events potentially affecting winter wheat development or dry conditions ahead of corn planting provide support. A weather-driven market is expected to keep prices supported, although they will remain capped due to abundant supply. We continue to expect Chicago corn to trade in a USD 4.3–4.5/bushel range throughout Q1.
There are no changes to our estimate for Chicago corn, which we expect to average USD 4.18/bushel during the 2025/26 (September/August) crop year, with some upside bias. The average price since September 1 is running at USD 4.28/bushel.
US Corn Slips as USDA Projects Lower 26/27 Acreage
Corn opened lower last Tuesday in Chicago after the holiday Monday and posted all of its weekly losses despite a positive finish on Friday. However, the focus of the week was on wheat, which rallied due to dry weather in key US wheat regions and concerns about limited supply from Russia. Soybeans also had a strong week on hopes that China will continue buying.
The USDA last week released its first forecast for 26/27 at its Outlook Conference. Corn acreage came in at 94 million acres, with production at 15.76 billion bushels, versus 98.8 million acres and 18.58 billion bushels in the previous crop year. The market had been expecting 95 million acres and 15.9 billion bushels. All of the lost corn acreage went to soybeans.
Source: USDA
Wheat Gains on US Weather
Wheat rallied during the second half of the week after the USDA forecasted very warm weather and strong winds across the central and southern Plains, where a large portion of US wheat is grown.
The USDA Outlook reported wheat acreage for 26/27 at 45 million acres, with production at 1.86 billion bushels, versus 45.3 million acres and 1.99 billion bushels last year. The market had been expecting 44.7 million acres and 1.9 billion bushels.
Source: USDA
In India, the Food Ministry lifted a four-year ban on wheat exports and allowed an export quota of 2.5 million tonnes, though the market did not pay attention to this increase in supply.
French wheat is now 88% in good or excellent condition, versus 91% last week and 74% last year.
On the weather front, drier and sunnier conditions are finally reaching northwestern Europe, while the US is expected to see rains and snow in the growing regions, alongside the previously mentioned dry weather in the central and southern Plains. Rains are returning to central-southern Brazil and Argentina.
